The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term interest rates low and term premia repressed are fading We expect a measured move in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.25 to 4.40 percent, much sooner than the market anticipates