Conflicting Narratives Force Investors To Choose History

The S&P 500 Index rose for the fifth time in six days Tuesday, gaining 4.32 percent over the period and turning positive again for the year. The rebound comes as many point out that since World War II, there hasn't been a down period for stocks in the 12 months following a midterm election. That seems like a compelling reason to be bullish, until you realize that with just one exception, every Federal Reserve interest-rate hiking cycle — like we're in now — has ended in a recession.