The report of the U.S International Trade Commission is in. In most respects, USMCA is a marginal improvement over NAFTA. Anyone who trumpets USMCA now has no choice but to admit that NAFTA was good for the United States.
President Trump's most consistent talking point about NAFTA is it would bring auto production back to the United States (although it never really left.) But the ITC found otherwise. It determined that there would actually be a net job loss in auto production (although there would be an increase in auto parts production.) The ITC also estimated there would be a modest increase in U.S GDP of 0.35 percent. It would increase jobs in the United States by about 176,000 - about as much as an average month during Barack Obama's presidency.
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