Don't Fear LEI. It's Brought Down by a Shale Slump

Is a reliable recession indicator flashing red? The Conference Board's US Leading Economic Index fell -0.1% m/m in October, its third straight drop.[i] Moreover, the six-month change—how The Conference Board identifies trends—flipped negative in October for the first time this year. Given a lengthy LEI decline has preceded every US recession since 1959, this rough stretch may look discouraging. But in our view, it primarily reflects US manufacturing's—and specifically the shale oil industry's—ongoing troubles. This bull market has withstood both already, and we expect the same this time.