Fatal Conceit of C-19 Models
With apologies to Friedrich Hayek, I find there is a fatal conceit amongst purveyors of epidemiological information that imply they know more than they can know when forecasting the outlook for a new infection. Of course, we have to do the best we can with limited information, but we should be humble in forecasting and reluctant to support politically inspired prescriptions of how society and the economy should be regulated in the face of uncertainty. We have to be very conservative because, more often than not, the first words out of a politician’s mouth is “what’s the worst case?” From that answer comes policy recommendations.
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