Stocks routinely do what is both least expected and surprisingly rational afterwards. While I only forecast one year at a time, what nobody expects now—hence, what is likeliest—is two or three more great bull market years. Before you reject this, let me explain.
First, my 2022 forecast: A sideways, often scary global stock market through summer, followed by a strong autumn and winter, delivering double-digit 2022 gains.
Last January I told you 2021 looked great for US and world stocks—fueled largely by America’s political cycle. Since 1925, stocks fell in about half of US presidents’ inaugural years. The other half? Usually up huge. That was 2021, with the S&P 500 soaring 28.7% and world stocks up 21.8%. Markets saw past myriad scare stories past and present--to welcome approaching normalized economies and lowered legislative risk.