Recessions are never unexpected, merely hidden behind obvious biases or buried under layers of outdated dogma. Most of the time, any economy is almost certainly expanding, which distorts our sense of probabilities. Since outright contractions seem rare, even exceptional, the occurrence of one is as much of a shock as what typically provokes them.
Those aren’t mere coincidences, however. The public has confused “official” financial and monetary illiteracy for random accidents.
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