The Irrationality That Forms Beliefs of Janet Yellen

I’m inclined to cut Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen a tiny little slack here, pun intended. Rather miffed by all this talk of recession, appearing on ABC’s Good Morning America the Monday following the release of the gigantic January jobs report, Yellen confidently dismissed every idea the US economy might be in trouble.

“You don't have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years.”

It’s the combination of the two statistics which gives her point a chance. Economists such as the Secretary absolutely love the appeal of this pair of major labor market numbers. However, a shrewd enough observer of economic history, she knows well the need to clarify the one with the other.

 

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