Inflation's Historical Impact On Presidential Elections

Recent analyses have identified the price inflation since President Biden took office as a strong headwind against his re-election. Wall Street Journal reporters Stephanie Stamm and Jesse Newton, for example, noted in an April 4 article that a typical grocery basket costs 36.5% more today than in 2019.  The most recent CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics report an overall price rise of 18.75% since February, 2021, Pres. Biden’s first full month in office. 

There is, however, an important distinction that must be considered in assessing the impact of price inflation data on the popular vote for President. 
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