It’s August 19, 2025. On August 19, 2035, yields on U.S. Treasuries from the shortest to longest maturities will be lower relative to today. I’ll gladly welcome $1,000 bets in a shameless attempt to mimic the late Julian Simon.
Simon famously placed a bet in 1980 with catastrophist Paul Ehrlich about a number of notable commodities and their prices. Simon said high prices were a summons to production and would beget lower prices within ten years. Ehrlich disagreed. Simon won.
Treasury yields are poised to decline, meaning U.S. Treasuries will become more valuable, precisely because money is ruthless and markets are wise.
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