Analyzing Gold Price From Iran/China Barter Angle

There have been lots of speculations about the increase in the price of gold by some 50 percent (from $2,800 to above $4,000 per ounce) since February 2025.  Many attribute the increase to global political uncertainty, debt levels in the U.S., and countries looking for alternatives to the U.S. dollar as a response to the tariffs wars.  However, these fears and arguments are not new such that they were already priced. Which calls for an explanation of the timing, whether or not gold will remain at this price, or if it will rise or decline.