A new Rosenberg Research indicator shows that only 18 percent of the U.S. population now lives in regions classified as economically expanding—the lowest share since May 2020. This collapse in the breadth of growth is one of the clearest statistical signs that the United States may already be in a hidden or rolling recession, even as headline GDP and employment data indicate otherwise. The eighteen percent matches levels observed only during sharp downturns in 2001, 2008, and 2020--each of which corresponds to a deep recession.
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