For the better part of a year, many had become convinced that the Federal Reserve's independence was in its final days.
The narrative rested on two prongs. First, an FOMC browbeaten by relentless public attacks, threats of removal, and a Justice Department criminal probe into Chair Jerome Powell. The pressure, many argued, had grown so intense that Fed decisions would no longer be trusted to reflect economics rather than politics. Second, a new chair expected to arrive in May 2026, widely projected to be a Trump loyalist, would finish what the pressure campaign had started.
Both prongs have problems.
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