A Missing Perspective on March's Inflation 'Surge'

March’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report hit the wires Friday, offering the first look at how higher oil and gas prices affected inflation. And it wasn’t pleasant: Headline CPI jumped 3.3% y/y, leading to a surge in headlines’ use of the word “surge” as gas prices jumped 18.9%.[i] The general presumption: This is just the tip of the iceberg as higher oil prices work their way through all categories where transit and petrochemical feedstocks factor in. But this seems far too hasty. The conditions for resurgent hot inflation don’t look present to us, and market-based indicators imply it should remain at bay. Inflation seems like a brick in stocks’ wall of worry. Read Full Article »