The M&A market entered 2026 with force that didn't build gradually, it released. Global volume hit $1.22 trillion in Q1, a 26% surge over the prior year and the strongest quarterly start since 2021. The mechanism matters. Lina Khan ran one of the most aggressive merger-challenge regimes in FTC history from June 2021 through the administration change, creating a four-year deal desert across tech, healthcare, retail, and financial services. When that pressure lifted, the $4.3 trillion in private equity dry powder that had been waiting for a signal did not gradually return to work. It was released like a compressed spring. According to Morgan Stanley's 2026 M&A outlook, a multi-year rebound is underway. Markets have priced in the activity. They haven't fully priced in the failure risk.
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