Sept. Is Coming: So Are False Seasonality Fears

Pundits’ list of worries is long and growing these days, including $40 trillion in US debt, high stock valuations, rising Treasury yields and an AI-related bubble. As September approaches, many see that as an inauspicious backdrop for the calendar’s weakest month historically. But hold on. While September is stocks’ weakest month on average, this overlooks several key points about stocks’ returns and drivers. Chief among them: Seasonality doesn’t drive markets. That pundits have added this old, false worry to their list reveals sentiment isn’t uniformly euphoric, a counterintuitively bullish factor. Read Full Article »