Relax, Obama Doesn't Have a Prayer in November

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Here's the good news for freedom-loving citizens across the United States: Barack Obama, our current President, will not win re-election this November. He cannot win re-election this November. It is a sure thing, a lock, with no possibility of being wrong.

Now how can I be so sure? To the point of being cocky?

Look no further than Jimmy Carter-the worst U.S. president since Richard Nixon's character flaws triggered his resignation.

Jimmy Carter had a 54% approval rating when 1980 began. Today, (the same point in Obama's first-term) Obama has an approval rating of just 42%. Meanwhile, Carter came into 1980 with 9.7% inflation, 9% unemployment, a stock market appreciation of 5.4% (compounded from December 1976), not to mention a hostage crisis in Iran and gasoline lines as far as the eye could see.

The obvious disparity which revealed itself that November was Carter's approval rating was not at all indicative of his woeful election performance. Carter won only six states plus Washington D.C., for a grand total of 49 electoral votes. Ronald Reagan won a whopping 489 electoral votes (or 91%)! Simply put, it was an unmitigated election disaster for the Democrats.

The real source of the inaccuracy of Carter's approval rating was a poll that asks for an individual's approval, without measuring anything about whether they will actually bother to vote. Conversely, those who indicate disapproval reflect anger, suggesting a high probability of voting against the person targeted with the anger.

Other trends offer further proof of why Obama has little chance of doing better than Carter, and why a shellacking is destined to occur this November. A number of prominent, liberal Democrats are openly voicing their displeasure with President Obama, Big names like Mort Zuckerman, Lee Cooperman, Bernie Marcus and many other pinnacles of business are openly criticizing Obama (virtually none of which happened to Carter from his own party's followers and benefactors). Anger is trumping his benefactors' prior approval.

Recent election results also support my pasting prediction. Remember the 9th District in New York City? It had been in Democratic hands since 1920. 1920! The Democrats of course lost it. Or consider the 2010 House of Representatives victory for the Republicans and the Tea Party-it was the worst drubbing in over seventy years!

There are also reports that many Democrats are considering becoming independents, suggesting they don't want to be associated with a party now considered "Socialist" and "Marxist" by some. The party's attack on capitalism and our economic freedom has rightfully offended many likely voters who actually work for a living, as opposed to those who live off the welfare system and pay no taxes (or, as some say, "vote for a living.")

Remember, the presidency is won through the Electoral College, not the total popular vote. This leads us back to this issue of anger as a major force, and why a few more people voting per state can count a great deal towards a victory. Ronald Reagan won the popular vote over Carter 43.9 million to 35.5 million (55% to 45%), but as I mentioned Reagan took 91% of the Electoral College. That is the key piece of evidence foretelling the future that will befall Mr. Obama in 2012!

There is one caveat in my prediction: If Obama's approval rating drops into the 30% area early in 2012, like LBJ's did in March of 1968, it may very well lead to Obama dropping out of the race. In that case, circumstances would bring in Hillary Clinton and cause a real election.


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