The $2 Trillion Infrastructure Plan Is Never Going to Happen
President Trump and the Democratic Party congressional leaders agreed this week to spend $2 trillion on infrastructure in order to create jobs. It’s never going to happen - and that is a good thing.
The infrastructure spending Trump agreed to with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer is DOA for several reasons. The federal budget doesn’t have the money, and congressional Republicans don’t have the inclination to dig yet another deep hole of debt. The idea itself is less than serious; apparently Trump embraced it because $2 trillion sounds like more than $1 trillion. In any event, this will be the third time Trump reached a pact with Democrats, only to walk away (gun reform, immigration.)
Moreover, the huge spending on infrastructure cannot take place for a simple reason: The United States does not have the skilled trades people to turn this $2 trillion dream into reality. You can promise all of the money you want to for construction, you still need enough trained people to handle earth movers and other complex equipment. The United States doesn’t have enough people like that to take on trillions of new dollars in infrastructure spending. It doesn’t even have the skilled people to pursue the public and private projects that are already on the board.
Not only is the national unemployment rate at lows not seen in decades like most industrialized countries, the United States is particularly short of skilled people in construction. The CEO of the trade group Associated Builders and Contractors last year said the construction industry already added 330,000 jobs in 2018, and had another 400,000 to 500,000 jobs that needed filling.
As a result of the skilled labor shortage, infrastructure projects are already moving at a crawl, like an airport with jets stacked on top of each other.
A survey by the National Association of Home Builders found that 70 percent of builders reported difficulties hiring carpenters, over 60 percent attracting masons, and more than half finding electricians, plumbers, painters, and roofers.
General contractors who repair roads, bridges, and other large infrastructure projects face a similar challenge. A national survey released by the Association of General Contractors of America found 70 percent of respondents had a “hard time” filling skilled labor positions.
Why then the assumption that there are plenty of people available to fill skilled positions? To a large degree, it reflects an elitist view, that anyone can take part in infrastructure projects, it’s not complex like law or banking. Just give them a svelte; it worked 90 years ago.
It also reflects a popular view of the economy that is the opposite of the truth: It assumes that we are short of jobs. In fact, we are short of people with the skills and inclination to perform the tasks that need performing.
There is no magic bullet that can solve our economic problems, meet infrastructure needs, and generate employment all at once. Politicians should stop looking for one, let alone promise $2 trillion on it.
