During his first term, Donald Trump was an apprentice, a novice politician who had a lot to learn about the inner workings of the federal government. Trump’s term can best be described as unremarkable, with a naïve and undisciplined President Trump wasting this opportunity to lead the country and achieve his stated goals. He paid for his failings, and in 2020, “We the People” said “you’re fired.” That is usually the end of a political career, but Donald Trump is not a typical politician. He soldiered on, and despite a myriad of attempts to derail his 2024 campaign, he never succumbed. While most people don’t get second chances in life, Donald Trump defied the odds.
Based on his first presidency, Trump is ranked 41st by presidential historians. The next four years are a unique opportunity for him to change the narrative, and not be remembered like other one-term presidents who have fared poorly in the rankings because they have few notable accomplishments.
Trump has surely thought about his legacy. He now has the option of being able to rewrite the previous judgements of historians. Should Donald Trump successfully enact his working agenda, it is likely that he will go down in American history as one of the most impactful and important presidents. His success or failure could dramatically affect us all.
Trump 2.0 is the Donald Trump we recall from The Apprentice. You can bank on him using his famous line, “You’re fired.” If his actions match his promises, he will start by closing the border and exporting those who are living illegally in this country. Simultaneously, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, should start to radically reduce the size (or eliminate entirely) many government agencies. If the efficiency experts at DOGE eliminate 1 or 2 trillion dollars in costs, those funds can be returned to the American people in the form of lower taxes and used to reduce America’s national debt.
One way to “Make America Great Again” is to radically reform the way government operates by moving us back to the original vision of the Constitution: a republic where the federal government exercises limited powers and the states hold most of the authority. That’s easier said than done. Trump will face enormous challenges. The Republicans won't always support him, and the Democrats will try to stop him, so it may be difficult to accomplish his goals.
Trump, however, is a risk-taker at heart and strategically, he has nothing to lose.
The boom: Imagine that he succeeds in transforming our inefficient government bureaucracy into a lean business enterprise. If DOGE does what it promises to accomplish, we can expect Musk and Ramaswamy to slash the number of government employees like he did at Twitter/X. Immediately after Musk bought Twitter, the workforce fell from 7,500 to 1,500. If Trump reduces taxes on capital gains, investments throughout the economy will expand, and capital from abroad will also flow into the country. Elsewhere, his proposals to eliminate taxes on tips, increase tax credits for each child, make overtime pay exempt from taxation, and abolish the income tax on Social Security benefits will boost disposable incomes. Coupled with fewer regulations on businesses, these separate forces will unleash a wave of spending that will supercharge the entire economy. When that happens, the benefits extend to all segments in society, not just the wealthy.
The trillion-dollar question is whether this will work as Trump and his advisers envision it.
The bust: Trump has been dealt a difficult hand to play as he inherits a 36 trillion-dollar debt. If the tariffs placed on a wide swath of foreign countries hurt the economy at the same time as DOGE trims trillions from the federal budget, Trump 2.0 could hit hard. As federal spending falls precipitously, and prices rise due to widespread tariffs, this contractionary cocktail could cause massive chaos. That’s a doomsday scenario for the dollar and an economic recession in the making.
Given the two possible paths, we should all be rooting for Donald Trump. Let's hope that Donald Trump succeeds whether you love him, like him, hate him, despise him, or are indifferent — none of that matters for the next four years. If the economy wins, we all do.
