As winter's chill descends across the Northern Hemisphere and global energy markets pulse with uncertainty, a profound transformation is unfolding – not in the corridors of European climate conferences but in the rapidly industrializing landscape of the Global South.
At the epicenter of this seismic shift stand the Asian giants of China and India. They unapologetically chart their own course in complex energy geopolitics, challenging the prevailing narrative of a transition to wind and solar energy and exposing the realities of economic needs.
Europe’s wintertime concerns and Asia’s insatiable appetite for growth showcase two distinct priorities. While Europe clings to a fantasy of a “green” utopia and struggles with rising energy costs and frigid temperatures, India – Asia’s second-largest economy – doubles down on coal and oil.
The inconvenient and undeniable truth is that the world’s so-called energy transition is going nowhere but back to fossil fuels.
Europe’s Winter of Discontent and Wind’s Failure
This winter, Europe’s energy woes have been exacerbated by a fundamental problem: the unpredictability of renewable energy sources. Insufficient wind across Germany and the United Kingdom have sent electricity imports soaring, with Sweden’s grid bearing much of the burden.
Germany, a chagrined leader in wind energy, found itself importing electricity at premium prices to compensate for stagnant turbines. The result? Rising electricity costs across the European Union, as nations scramble to offset electricity shortfalls with costly imports or gas-fired power generation.
With strong anti-coal and anti-nuclear sentiment still prevalent in political circles, power grids strain to match demand. This European scenario is a global signal that “renewable” energy remains intermittent and impractical despite false assurances from its promoters.
Europe’s precarious situation contrasts with the approach in Asia, where energy policy is driven by growth imperatives rather than targets for lowering emissions of carbon dioxide. Nowhere is this difference more apparent than in India.
Fossil Fuels Power India’s March to Greater Prosperity
Indian energy demand is skyrocketing alongside a burgeoning population and an economy set to become the world’s third largest by 2030. The country will drive 25% of global energy growth in the coming decades, with oil demand playing a central role and coal remaining indispensable to the industrial sector.
A recent survey highlighted that major steelmakers in India are refusing to transition to “renewable” energy. Steelmaking, a cornerstone of industrial growth, is energy-intensive and heavily reliant on coal. India’s steel industry, which ranks second globally in production, is no exception.
The high costs and technical challenges of adopting green hydrogen or solar- and wind-driven electricity for steelmaking have left coal as the primary fuel. India’s push to expand its infrastructure – from highways to affordable housing – is driving steel demand, and by extension, coal consumption.
India’s energy ambitions are not confined to its borders. The Indian state-owned ONGC recently acquired a $60 million stake in Azerbaijan's Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) oil field and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. Many have noted the irony of Azerbaijan hosting the recently concluded U.N. COP climate conference, where the country’s president called oil and gas a “gift from God.”
India’s embrace of coal and oil aligns with the inclinations of President-elect Donald Trump, who has championed fossil fuels as a cornerstone of American economic strength. His planned withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and rollback of environmental regulations are framed as measures to protect jobs and establish energy independence. While Trump’s policies drew criticism from environmentalists, they struck a chord with nations like India, which recognize access to energy as a prerequisite for development.
The global energy future will not be defined by climate dogma and transition fantasy but by practical approaches that prioritize stable, reliable and affordable energy. That means we are in a century that will be dominated by hydrocarbons while awaiting a wider deployment of nuclear energy over a period of decades.
That noise in the background about a new “green” future is largely meaningless nattering.
