The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a leading gauge of consumer sentiment, increased slightly by 0.2% in February to 52.0. The index posted its 40-month high in December (54.0) and pulled back to 51.9 in January. Since President Trump's re-election in November 2024, the index has posted readings in the optimistic territory.
February’s reading of 52.0 is 5.8% higher than its historical average of 49.2. Investor confidence improved by 1.6% (0.9 points) to 57.8, while non-investor confidence declined marginally by 0.6 points (1.2%) to 48.9.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has established a strong track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators issued later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. From February 2001 to October 2023, TIPP released this index monthly in collaboration with its former sponsor and media partner, Investor's Business Daily.
RCM/TIPP surveyed 1,478 adults from January 29 to 31 for the February index. The online survey utilized TIPP's network of panels to obtain the sample.
The index and its components range from 0 to 100. A reading above 50.0 signals optimism, and below 50.0 indicates pessimism. 50 is neutral.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In February, two of the three components declined, and one advanced.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, declined by 1.9%, from 52.1 in January to 51.1 in February.
The index declined by 3.5 points, or 5.4%, from 64.7 in January to 61.2 in February. The decline indicates an easing of stress, a welcome change.
The higher the number, the more stress. Readings above 50 signal increased stress, while those below 50 indicate lower stress, with 50 considered neutral. For context, the last time the index posted below 50.0 was before the onset of the pandemic in February 2020, when it stood at 48.1.
The index’s historical average since December 2007 stands at 60.3. February's reading of 61.2 surpasses this historical average by 1.5%, indicating that Americans are experiencing slightly elevated stress levels.
Notably, the index peaked at 70.5 in October 2023, marking its highest reading since December 2008 (71.0). Since then, it has declined for the better, reaching 61.2 in February 2025.
“While change is a brilliant constant of dynamic economies, sometimes the ideal scenario for dynamism is a lack of volatility when it comes to economic factors that power dynamism. Perhaps that's what we're seeing in this month's number,” said John Tamny, the editor of RealClearMarkets.
“Americans' economic confidence improved slightly in February. However, fears of inflation and a slowdown persist: 77% of Americans are worried about inflation, and 71% are concerned about an economic slowdown in the next 12 months. Food prices are the #1 economic concern for Americans," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, who directed the survey. "Financial stress eased significantly in February.”
Economic Optimism Index Breakdown
This month, 13 of the 21 demographic groups we track, including age, gender, race, and education, are in positive territory above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. For comparison, there were 14 in January, 15 in December, and 18 in November. Eleven groups improved on the index, compared to five in January, 10 in December, and 18 in November.
For the Six-Month Economic Outlook component, 10 of the 21 groups that RCM/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory, compared to 13 in January, 15 in December, and 19 in November. Economic Outlook sentiment improved for eight of the 21 groups, compared to four in January, nine in December, and 18 in November.
For the Personal Financial component, 19 of the 21 groups that RCM/TIPP tracks were optimistic compared to 20 in January, 19 in December, 20 in November, and 17 in October. One group rose compared to 18 in January, three in December, and 18 in November.
For the Federal Policies component, seven of the 21 groups are above 50.0, compared to four in January, six in December, and one in November. Eighteen groups rose compared to five in January, 18 in December, and 16 in November.
Release Schedule For 2025
- Jan 25: Tuesday, January 14
- Feb 25: Tuesday, February 4
- Mar 25: Tuesday, March 4
- Apr 25: Tuesday, April 1
- May 25: Tuesday, May 6
- Jun 25: Tuesday, June 3
- Jul 25: Tuesday, July 1
- Aug 25: Tuesday, August 5
- Sep 25: Tuesday, September 2
- Oct 25: Tuesday, October 7
- Nov 25: Tuesday, November 4
- Dec 25: Tuesday, December 2
About TechnoMetrica/TIPP
TIPP is the polling unit of TechnoMetrica, a nationally renowned survey research and market research firm dedicated to providing clients with expert data-driven analysis to facilitate informed decision-making in their businesses. The TIPP Poll is considered the gold standard survey, having the unique distinction of being the most accurate presidential poll in the past five election cycles. The tippinsights unit provides editorials and commentaries on national and international issues, often appearing on the RealClearPolitics website.
About RealClearMarkets
RealClearMarkets (RCM) is a one-stop shop for market-related news, analysis, and commentary. RealClearMarkets collects and publishes business, finance, and economic content from across the ideological spectrum. Site features include Market Data, Off the Street Blogs, Quotes, Research Reports, Videos, Topics, and Facts & Fallacies.
RealClearMarkets falls underneath the umbrella of RealClear Media Group's(RCMG) brands, sites that span a spectrum of passions and interests. Visit realclearmediagroup.com
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