The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a key gauge of consumer sentiment, fell from 52.0 in February to 49.8 in March, a 4.2% drop. After hitting a 40-month high of 54.0 in December, it edged down to 51.9 in January and 52.0 in February. Since President Trump’s re-election in November 2024, the index had stayed in optimistic territory but slipped below the 50.0 threshold in March.
March’s reading of 49.8 is 1.3% higher than its historical average of 49.2.
Investor confidence improved by 4.2% (2.4 points) to 60.2, while non-investor confidence dropped sharply by 4.3 points (8.8%) to 44.6.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a strong track record of predicting the confidence indicators later released by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. From February 2001 to October 2023, TIPP released this index monthly in collaboration with its former sponsor and media partner, Investor's Business Daily.
RCM/TIPP surveyed 1,434 adults from February 26 to 28 for the March index. The online survey utilized TIPP's network of panels to obtain the sample.
The index ranges from 0 to 100. Readings above 50 indicate optimism, while those below 50 signal pessimism. A score of 50 is neutral.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In March, all three components declined.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, declined by 9.6%, from 51.1 in February to 46.2 in March, breaking a four-month streak above 50.
The index rose 2.7 points (4.4%) from 61.2 in February to 63.9 in March, reflecting heightened financial stress among Americans.
The higher the number, the more stress. Readings above 50 signal increased stress, while those below 50 indicate lower stress, with 50 considered neutral. For context, the last time the index posted below 50.0 was before the onset of the pandemic in February 2020, when it stood at 48.1.
The index has averaged 60.3 since December 2007. March’s reading of 63.9 exceeds this by 6.0%, signaling heightened financial stress.
Notably, the index peaked at 70.5 in October 2023, marking its highest reading since December 2008 (71.0). Since then, it has declined for the better, reaching 63.9 in March 2025.
“It can't be said enough that consumption is an effect of production, and production grows the more that work is divided among people and machines around the world. It's worth remembering all this as the RCM/TIPP Index retreats. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised in light of the barriers to trade that are going up globally, with the U.S. a lamentable instigator of the barriers,” said John Tamny, the editor of RealClearMarkets.
“Americans' economic confidence weakened in March. Fears of inflation and a slowdown persist: 82% of Americans are worried about inflation, and 76% are concerned about an economic slowdown in the next 12 months. Food prices are the #1 economic concern for Americans," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, who directed the survey. "Financial stress increased in March.”
Economic Optimism Index Breakdown
This month, nine of the 21 demographic groups we track, including age, gender, race, and education, are in positive territory above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. For comparison, there were 13 in February, 14 in January, and 15 in December. Five groups improved on the index, compared to 11 in February, five in January, and 10 in December.
For the Six-Month Economic Outlook component, five of the 21 groups that RCM/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory, compared to 10 in February, 13 in January, and 15 in December. Economic Outlook sentiment improved for two of the 21 groups, compared to eight in February, four in January, and nine in December.
For the Personal Financial component, 17 of the 21 groups that RCM/TIPP tracks were optimistic compared to 19 in February, 20 in January, and 19 in December. Ten groups rose compared to one in February, 18 in January, and three in December.
For the Federal Policies component, six of the 21 groups are above 50.0, compared to seven in February, four in January, and six in December. Nine groups rose compared to 18 in February, five in January, and 18 in December.
Release Schedule For Balance Of 2025
- Apr 25: Tuesday, April 1
- May 25: Tuesday, May 6
- Jun 25: Tuesday, June 3
- Jul 25: Tuesday, July 1
- Aug 25: Tuesday, August 5
- Sep 25: Tuesday, September 2
- Oct 25: Tuesday, October 7
- Nov 25: Tuesday, November 4
- Dec 25: Tuesday, December 2
About TechnoMetrica/TIPP
TIPP is the polling unit of TechnoMetrica, a nationally renowned survey research and market research firm dedicated to providing clients with expert data-driven analysis to facilitate informed decision-making in their businesses. The TIPP Poll is considered the gold standard survey, having the unique distinction of being the most accurate presidential poll in the past five election cycles. The tippinsights unit provides editorials and commentaries on national and international issues, often appearing on the RealClearPolitics website.
About RealClearMarkets
RealClearMarkets (RCM) is a one-stop shop for market-related news, analysis, and commentary. RealClearMarkets collects and publishes business, finance, and economic content from across the ideological spectrum. Site features include Market Data, Off the Street Blogs, Quotes, Research Reports, Videos, Topics, and Facts & Fallacies.
RealClearMarkets falls underneath the umbrella of RealClear Media Group's(RCMG) brands, sites that span a spectrum of passions and interests. Visit realclearmediagroup.com today.
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