Since the start of his term, President Donald J. Trump has launched and suspended several new tariffs. Hopefully, the tariffs are temporary so the President can leverage better trade deals with our trading partners. If they are in force too long, they may continue the inflation which drove voters to the ballot box to remove President Joe Biden and Democrats in Congress, out of office. In other words, Republicans may pay a high price politically if tariffs languish on the books and keep prices high for consumers.
There are deep concerns that a trade war will lead to an economic contraction this year. The AP reported on March 9, 2025, “After imposing and then quickly pausing 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada that sent markets tumbling over concerns of a trade war, Trump said his plans for broader ‘reciprocal’ tariffs will go into effect April 2, raising them to match what other countries assess.” Higher prices on consumer goods and foods, in other words continued price inflation, is a real possibility going forward.
A good example of how tariffs will hurt average American families is the impact on groceries. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in polling data released in 2023, 84% of Americans were very or somewhat concerned about inflation. ABC exit polls conducted during the 2024 elections showed that voters believed the economy was in bad shape by a 44% margin. Those numbers show consumers continued to be worried about inflation and the economy by American families drove President Joe Biden out of office.
Higher grocery prices have been one of the drivers of inflation. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, “in 2021, all-food prices increased 3.9 percent as prices began accelerating in the second half of the year. In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than in any year since 1979. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent.” Since, 2021, food and home and food away from home have spiked to close to over 20%.
Take the case of tomatoes as a case study in how tariffs impact grocery and food prices. While most Americans look to Mexico for avocados and bananas, Mexico exports high quality tomatoes that end up in five-star restaurant salads and the larger tomatoes people buy at the grocery store. According to California Fruit and Vegetable Magazine, “Mexico’s 2024 tomato production is forecast at 3.30 million metric tons (MMT)” with “the United States is Mexico’s top tomato export market, with 1.82 MMT in exports valued at USD 2.7 billion in 2023.” There is a big push by domestic producers of tomatoes to use tariffs to deter Americans from purchasing Mexican tomatoes. The problem is that the Mexican tomatoes are of better quality and the consumer, not the government, should be making market decisions.
The Trump Administration should avoid tariffs which make economic growth harder to achieve. It is not just tomatoes; Americans love many foods that will be harder to afford under any tariffs. Targeting such goods will hurt lower- and middle-class households most, both at the grocery store and their favorite restaurants. As much as it is desirable to domestically produce coffee, spices, seasonal fruits and vegetables, they are more naturally grown elsewhere. The Biden Administration was hammered politically for the sticker shock on American families. Targeted tariffs are preferable to avoid consumer goods that increase pricing pressure on all Americans.
Protectionism should not be the reason for implementing tariffs and domestic growers of many vegetables and fruits have been guilty of pushing the federal government to price up competing goods in the trade wars. Most Americans see the concept of tariffs as a path forward to better deals and a way to domestically manufacture more cars or electronic goods. They don’t see them harming consumers through the groceries they purchase every week.
This also touches on the idea of Making America Healthy Again (MAHA). Hiking prices on fruits and vegetables will drive consumers away from purchasing them. It is simple economics that dictates consumers will buy less or avoid high priced products, even if they really want them. Next time you eat a salad with avocados and tomatoes, remember that they might be a victim of tariffs on Mexico if the trade war continues.
