The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a key gauge of consumer sentiment, declined from 49.8 in March to 49.1 in April, representing a 1.4% decrease. After hitting a 40-month high of 54.0 in December, the index eased to 51.9 in January and 52.0 in February before falling below the 50.0 threshold in March. April's reading of 49.1 marks the second consecutive month in pessimistic territory. Since President Trump’s re-election in November 2024, the index had remained in optimistic territory until February.
April’s reading of 49.1 is 0.1% lower than its historical average of 49.2.
Investor confidence improved by 1.2% (0.7 points) to 60.9, while non-investor confidence dropped by 2.0 points (4.5%) to 42.6.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a strong track record of predicting the confidence indicators later released by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. From February 2001 to October 2023, TIPP released this index monthly in collaboration with its former sponsor and media partner, Investor's Business Daily.
RCM/TIPP surveyed 1,452 adults from March 26 to 28 for the April index. The online survey utilized TIPP's network of panels to obtain the sample.
The index ranges from 0 to 100. Readings above 50 indicate optimism, while those below 50 signal pessimism. A score of 50 is neutral.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In April, two of the three components declined.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, declined by 2.6%, from 46.2 in March to 45.0 in April.
The index declined 0.2 points (0.3%) from 63.9 in March to 63.7 in April, reflecting a slight easing of financial stress among Americans.
The higher the number, the more stress. Readings above 50 signal increased stress, while those below 50 indicate lower stress; 50 is considered neutral. For context, the last time the index posted below 50.0 was before the onset of the pandemic in February 2020, when it stood at 48.1.
The index has averaged 60.3 since December 2007. March’s reading of 63.7 exceeds this by 5.6%, signaling heightened financial stress relative to the long-term average.
Notably, the index peaked at 70.5 in October 2023, marking its highest reading since December 2008 (71.0). Since then, it has improved, reaching 63.7 in April 2025.
"Progress is one of the constants in American life, while barriers to progress are almost invariably governmental. A trade war is anti-progress exactly because it suffocates the very division of labor that makes it possible for people to produce at levels they never could on their own. As consumer confidence declines even a little, it's not unreasonable to wonder if the source of reduced confidence can be found in Washington, D.C," said John Tamny, the editor of RealClearMarkets.
“Americans' economic confidence weakened in April. Fears of inflation and a slowdown persist: 79% of Americans are worried about inflation, and 76% are concerned about an economic slowdown in the next 12 months. Food prices are the #1 economic concern for Americans. The uncertainty about upcoming tariffs and their impact on the economy is also a wildcard," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, who directed the survey. "Financial stress eased slightly in April.”
Economic Optimism Index Breakdown
This month, nine of the 21 demographic groups we track, including age, gender, race, and education, are in positive territory, with scores above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. For comparison, there were nine in March, 13 in February, and 14 in January. Nine groups improved on the index, compared to five in March, 11 in February, and five in January.
For the Six-Month Economic Outlook component, five of the 21 groups that RCM/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory, compared to five in March, 10 in February, and 13 in January. Economic Outlook sentiment improved for six of the 21 groups, compared to two in March, eight in February, and four in January.
For the Personal Financial component, 18 of the 21 groups tracked by RCM/TIPP were optimistic, compared to 17 in March, 19 in February, and 20 in January. Eleven groups rose compared to 10 in March, one in February, and 18 in January.
For the Federal Policies component, five of the 21 groups are above 50.0, compared to six in March, seven in February, and four in January. Five groups rose compared to nine in March, 18 in February, and five in January.
Release Schedule For Balance Of 2025
- May 25: Tuesday, May 6
- Jun 25: Tuesday, June 3
- Jul 25: Tuesday, July 1
- Aug 25: Tuesday, August 5
- Sep 25: Tuesday, September 2
- Oct 25: Tuesday, October 7
- Nov 25: Tuesday, November 4
- Dec 25: Tuesday, December 2
About TechnoMetrica/TIPP
TIPP is the polling unit of TechnoMetrica, a nationally renowned survey research and market research firm dedicated to providing clients with expert data-driven analysis to facilitate informed decision-making in their businesses. The TIPP Poll is considered the gold standard survey, having the unique distinction of being the most accurate presidential poll in the past five election cycles. The tippinsights unit provides editorials and commentaries on national and international issues, often appearing on the RealClearPolitics website.
About RealClearMarkets
RealClearMarkets (RCM) is a one-stop shop for market-related news, analysis, and commentary. RealClearMarkets collects and publishes business, finance, and economic content from across the ideological spectrum. Site features include Market Data, Off the Street Blogs, Quotes, Research Reports, Videos, Topics, and Facts & Fallacies.
RealClearMarkets falls underneath the umbrella of RealClear Media Group's(RCMG) brands, sites that span a spectrum of passions and interests. Visit realclearmediagroup.com
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