An imminent executive order on deep sea mining could open a new resource frontier. It’s a signal to markets that the United States is finally prepared to unlock private investment in a long-dormant but massively consequential industry, one that can address the nation’s looming metal crisis.
The basic concept of deep sea mining has been understood for decades. On the abyssal plains of the Pacific lie vast fields of polymetallic nodules packed with high concentrations of nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper. These metals are essential to electric vehicles, energy storage, and defense manufacturing. Using undersea robotics and vessels adapted from offshore oil and gas, operators can lift nodules from the seafloor and pipe them to surface ships.
If this nascent industry starts, the upside is enormous. The Clarion-Clipperton Zone, a large area between California and Hawaii, is estimated to hold more nickel, cobalt, and manganese resources than most known land-based reserves combined, worth trillions. The International Energy Agency projects that global mineral demand could double by 2040 to $770 billion annually. Terrestrial mining will struggle to keep up.
Unlike terrestrial mining, which can take 15–20 years from discovery to production, seabed operations can scale in 3–5 years with modular equipment and proven technology.
Over the last ten years, pioneering firms have piloted the technology and established the economic geology. Industry leader The Metals Company has already raised and invested $500 million, and is prepared to start commercial recovery as soon as 2026. Silicon Valley darling Impossible Metals is building a fleet of autonomous underwater vehicles that can remote harvest at scale. The final barrier is regulatory.
For years, Western firms have been sidelined from seabed mining due to a regulatory vacuum. Global rules under the United Nations have stalled for over a decade, leaving billions in private capital on the sidelines. Meanwhile, China quietly secured the largest portfolio of seabed exploration licenses in the world.
The upcoming executive order changes that. It embraces the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA), a Reagan-era law that grants U.S. companies the right to explore and recover minerals from international waters under a domestic licensing regime. NOAA is the licensing authority and while the framework has been largely dormant there are two active exploration licenses. Both The Metals Company and Impossible Metals have announced plans to apply to NOAA, and more companies are likely to follow.
Beyond accelerating the existing regulatory framework, the executive order is reported to include a stockpile of seafloor resources. Such a move is a win-win. It ensures that the U.S. can quickly scale up critical mineral supply to offset newly belligerent Chinese export controls. And it provides a price floor that creates investment certain for financing deep sea mining projects.
The executive order also underscores the geopolitical urgency of establishing a domestic industry. China is making significant moves in deep sea moving, inking a strategic minerals deal with the Cook Islands that can that enable them to skirt around the UN regulations holding up Western industry. If China can get a stranglehold on this new industry, it will solidify its hold over critical minerals markets.
Seafloor resources are one of the only ways that the U.S. can quickly scale up domestic metals mining and processing. The basic technology stack is readily scalable as it just consists of a modified drilling vessel, several remote operated vehicles, and a riser system.
A domestic licensing regime, paired with anchor demand and the full support of the U.S. government, now gives American firms a predictable pathway to revenue and scale. America’s established offshore energy industries provide the industrial backbone to quickly develop this resource frontier. For capital markets, the signal is powerful.
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