Energy dominance has been a persistent national objective from Carter's "Moral Equivalence of War," Nixon's "Project Independence," and George W. Bush's warning about "addiction to oil." To achieve energy dominance, a country’s stores of energy must considerably exceed its consumption. Greater national security, increased foreign policy leverage, and strengthened economic resilience are only a few of the benefits that come from achieving this objective, but current policy plans are likely to upend the United States’ progress towards energy dominance.
Two other objectives associated with the current Trump administration include leadership in artificial intelligence (AI) and reshoring manufacturing. Energy use by AI data centers, combined with energy-intensive manufacturing could raise U.S. energy consumption by up to 50% by 2040, according to some estimates. That boost in consumption conflicts with energy dominance—but energy dominance can still be achieved through an array of other policies.
In practice, beyond AI leadership and reshoring, current rhetoric and policies are at odds with the goal of achieving a greater energy surplus. The enacted policies instead destroy energy supply and ramp up consumption and thereby undermine the nation’s energy dominance objective. Today’s policymaking agenda systematically shrinks energy supply while encouraging higher consumption.
On the supply side, offshore wind project cancellations and onerous tariffs against solar panels and batteries used in grid storage have blocked the conversion and use of abundant sun and wind into usable energy. Oklahoma is considering a complete ban on renewable projects, while more broadly many local jurisdictions fight against the deployment of solar farms, wind turbines, and grid-scale battery sites. Fossil fuel extraction incentives, such as offering more leases, are misleadingly termed “production.” But extraction does not create energy—the energy-intensive process of drilling, pumping, sending through pipelines, and refining ultimately destroys supply, and what remains is merely shifted from below to above ground.
On the demand side, efficiency rollbacks worsen the situation. Weakened automobile (CAFE), appliance, and lighting standards are framed as victories for consumer freedom. However, national goals inherently require collective discipline. Individuals are not free to choose their own traffic laws—such as driving inebriated—because such choices undermine public safety. Similarly, allowing the widespread use of inefficient appliances and vehicles directly conflicts with the goal of national energy dominance.
Low energy prices also encourage consumption. The federal gas tax has remained at 18 cents per gallon since 1993—despite that it no longer fully pays for road infrastructure, with the shortfall covered by the general fund, meaning that drivers are subsidized. This subsidy encourages energy consumption, via more driving, more congestion, and the purchase of fuel-hungry vehicles. Additionally, crypto mining incentives, especially prominent in states like Texas and Wyoming, further boost consumption. Bitcoin mining alone now consumes more electricity annually than many small nations.
Nonetheless, policies that may help mitigate increases in consumption or energy depletion are not actively being sought after. One policy with potential to reduce energy usage—congestion pricing—is being actively undermined. The federal government is currently trying to shelve New York City's congestion pricing, even though congestion pricing reduces energy use by preventing the inefficient fuel use associated with stop-and-go traffic.
To actually move toward energy dominance, the United States must expand actual energy creation, meaning accelerating the deployment of renewables by reducing regulatory hurdles, removing disincentives, and increasing incentives. It must modernize the grid, including expanding storage capacity, so that more generated energy is available for use and common curtailments—where generation exceeds what the grid can handle—are avoided. On the demand side, the nation should add tools like congestion pricing to curb inefficient consumption and encourage shifts in usage patterns that align with the energy abundance. Finally, policymakers must preserve fossil fuel reserves as strategic assets, rather than prematurely extracting and refining them without regard for long-term resilience.
Taking these steps will boost energy supply and reduce consumption—by definition, leading to increased dominance. A true dominance strategy would promote scalable and renewable energy sources, paired with modernized grid systems. Without a unified vision, instead of energy dominance, the hodgepodge of current policies delivers only energy shortsightedness.
