Last month, the RealClearMarkets/TIPP survey was the first to offer a grounded reading: Consumer confidence softened, but panic was absent. In the weeks that followed, other surveys caught up to what we had already reported.
This month, consumer sentiment showed meaningful improvement, edging closer to the neutral 50.0 threshold. The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a key gauge of consumer sentiment, climbed from 47.9 in May to 49.2 in June, representing a 2.7% increase. After hitting a 40-month high of 54.0 in December, the index eased to 51.9 in January and 52.0 in February before falling below the 50.0 threshold in March. June's reading of 49.2 marks the fourth consecutive month in the pessimistic zone. Since President Trump’s re-election in November 2024, the index remained optimistic until February.
Coincidentally, June’s reading matches its 293-month historical average of 49.2.
Investors’ confidence gained 1.2% (0.7 points) to 61.1, while non-investor confidence improved by 1.7 points (4.2%) to 42.6.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a strong track record of predicting the confidence indicators later released by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. From February 2001 to October 2023, TIPP released this index monthly in collaboration with its former sponsor and media partner, Investor's Business Daily.
RCM/TIPP surveyed 1,395 adults for the June index from May 28 to May 30. The online survey used TIPP's network of panels to obtain the sample.
The index is measured on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 50 indicate optimism, while those below 50 signal pessimism. A score of 50 is neutral.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In June, all of them improved.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, gained 3.4%, from 43.6 in May to 45.1 in June.
RCM/TIPP also releases a companion measure, the Financial-Related Stress Index, the only monthly metric tracking Americans’ financial stress.
The index declined 3.7 points (5.5%) from 66.7 in May to 63.0 in June, echoing the easing of financial stress among Americans.
The higher the number, the more stress. Readings above 50 signal increased stress, while those below 50 indicate lower stress; 50 is considered neutral. For context, the last time the index posted below 50.0 was before the onset of the pandemic in February 2020, when it stood at 48.1.
The index has averaged 60.4 since December 2007. June’s reading of 63.0 exceeds this by 4.4%, signaling heightened financial stress relative to the long-term average.
Notably, the index peaked at 70.5 in October 2023, marking its highest reading since December 2008 (71.0). Since then, it has improved, reaching 63.0 in June 2025.
"To export is to import. No economic school of thought can get around the previous truth. Which is why it's not too surprising that a pause on mindless tariffs (that would greatly hinder U.S. exports if implemented) has coincided with rising confidence. Producers are consumers, by definition. Which is why the only good tariff is no tariff. May the Trump administration recognize this universal truth, and in recognizing it, set the stage for Americans to flourish as best they can," said John Tamny, the editor of RealClearMarkets.
“Americans' economic confidence brightened in June. Concerns about inflation, the impact of tariffs, and an economic slowdown persist. Food prices are the #1 economic concern for Americans," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, who directed the survey. "Financial stress eased significantly in June.”
Economic Optimism Index Breakdown
This month, seven of the 21 demographic groups we track, including age, gender, race, and education, are in positive territory, with scores above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. For comparison, there were eight in May, nine in April, and nine in March. Eighteen groups improved on the index, compared to five in May, nine in April, and five in March.
For the Six-Month Economic Outlook component, five of the 21 groups that RCM/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory, compared to five in May, five in April, and five in March. Economic Outlook sentiment improved for seventeen of the 21 groups, compared to nine in May, six in April, and two in March.
For the Personal Financial component, 13 of the 21 groups tracked by RCM/TIPP were optimistic, compared to 12 in May, 18 in April, and 17 in March. Sixteen groups rose compared to 10 in May, 11 in April, and 10 in March.
For the Federal Policies component, eight of the 21 groups are above 50.0, compared to seven in May, five in April, and six in March. Fifteen groups rose compared to 15 in May, five in April, and nine in March.
Release Schedule For The Balance Of 2025
- Jul 25: Tuesday, July 1
- Aug 25: Tuesday, August 5
- Sep 25: Tuesday, September 2
- Oct 25: Tuesday, October 7
- Nov 25: Tuesday, November 4
- Dec 25: Tuesday, December 2
About TechnoMetrica/TIPP
TIPP is the polling unit of TechnoMetrica, a nationally renowned survey research and market research firm dedicated to providing clients with expert data-driven analysis to facilitate informed decision-making in their businesses. The TIPP Poll is considered the gold standard survey, having the unique distinction of being the most accurate presidential poll in the past five election cycles. The tippinsights unit provides editorials and commentaries on national and international issues, often appearing on the RealClearPolitics website.
About RealClearMarkets
RealClearMarkets (RCM) is a one-stop shop for market-related news, analysis, and commentary. RealClearMarkets collects and publishes business, finance, and economic content from across the ideological spectrum. Site features include Market Data, Off the Street Blogs, Quotes, Research Reports, Videos, Topics, and Facts & Fallacies.
RealClearMarkets falls underneath the umbrella of RealClear Media Group's (RCMG) brands, sites that span a spectrum of passions and interests. Visit realclearmediagroup.com today.
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