What an exciting time to be alive, especially for those younger than myself. An insightful article in Fortune, "Will AI ever cure cancer? The multibillion-dollar race to bring the first AI-discovered drug to market," should inspire equal optimism, as the near future of medicine is poised to be transformational. As we expand AI's capabilities to distill centuries worth of human knowledge, medical professionals believe its impact on developing new treatments and cures will be extraordinary. Investors concur, as evidenced by the $18 billion poured into "AI-first" biotechs, which have collectively brought 75 new drugs or vaccines to clinical trials.
This means, particularly for the youngest among us, many of the diseases and ailments that devastate us now could well be eradicated in our lifetimes. This future of medicine holds great promise and may be at our fingertips. Which begs the question: why is the Trump administration getting in the way?
While President Trump has been vocal on ensuring America remains the global leader in AI, his administration has seemingly overlooked its critical importance to medicine. This is evidenced by President Trump’s recent executive order targeting the pharmaceutical industry, known as his “Most Favored Nation” policy, which aims to lower drug prices by enacting a price cap on them equal to the lowest prices paid in other developed countries. While this policy might sound like it's beneficial to consumers at first, the sad truth of its implications is revealed further down in the Fortune article, which critically notes that “staggeringly, 90 percent of all drug candidates fail in humans, meaning only one in 10 drugs makes it through that stage to approval—even after millions have been spent.”
President Trump has advanced his “Most Favored Nation” policy out of frustration with countries, particularly Europe, enacting price controls on medicine. The U.S. is therefore seen as shouldering the research and development burden for the entire world. One can understand the frustration, but just because Europe does something stupid doesn't mean we should strive to replicate it. Further, this so-called “free rider problem” feels a bit exaggerated considering the entire world is made up of “free riders” of American innovation, if we’re being honest. Whether you look at technology (even the invention of the Internet), or defense, or many other sectors of your choosing, it is so often our innovation that begets the innovation of others, born both out of a desire for profit and even a desire to simply be like us.
It should go without saying that our freedom is what allows us to be this beacon of innovation. We should never compromise that by mimicking another country's price controls at the expense of inventing less. The simple truth about Trump's "Most Favored Nation" policy is that it significantly endangers future investment in the kind of risky, long-term medical research that is essential to bringing new AI-discovered drugs to market, particularly so given that most drugs, to the tune of 90 percent, fail in development. It’s the few rare successes that pay for the rest.
If a 'free rider problem' exists in medicine, we must still acknowledge that a healthcare system that shifts its investment focus to the 'known' rather than the 'unknown' constitutes an even greater one.
Artificial intelligence is poised to redefine medicine. Either America will lead the way, or someone else will. Unfortunately, President Trump's executive order is ceding ground to the competition -- and that's a tough pill to swallow.
