Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in July, as the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index edged down from 49.2 in June to 48.6—a 1.2% decline. After peaking at a 40-month high of 54.0 in December, the index eased to 51.9 in January and 52.0 in February before slipping below the crucial 50.0 benchmark in March. July’s reading marks the fifth straight month in pessimistic territory. Since President Trump’s re-election in November 2024, the index had remained in optimistic territory until February.
The Economic Optimism Index’s July reading of 48.6 is 1.1% below its 294-month historical average of 49.2.
Investors’ confidence declined 5.9% (3.6 points) to 57.5, while non-investor confidence improved by 0.7 points (1.6%) to 43.3.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a strong track record of predicting the confidence indicators later released by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. From February 2001 to October 2023, TIPP released this index monthly in collaboration with its former sponsor and media partner, Investor's Business Daily.
RCM/TIPP surveyed 1,421 adults for the July index from June 25 to June 27. The online survey used TIPP's network of panels to obtain the sample.
The index is measured on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 50 indicate optimism, while those below 50 signal pessimism. A score of 50 is neutral.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In July, two of them declined.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, declined 1.3%, from 45.1 in June to 44.5 in July.
RCM/TIPP also releases a companion measure, the Financial-Related Stress Index, the only monthly metric tracking Americans’ financial stress.
The index declined 1.8 points (2.9%) from 63.0 in June to 61.2 in July, reflecting the second consecutive month in which Americans experienced easing financial stress.
The higher the number, the more stress. Readings above 50 signal increased stress, while those below 50 indicate lower stress; a reading of 50 is considered neutral. For context, the last time the index posted below 50.0 was before the onset of the pandemic in February 2020, when it stood at 48.1.
The index has averaged 60.4 since December 2007. June’s reading of 61.2 exceeds this by 1.4%, signaling heightened financial stress relative to the long-term average.
Notably, the index peaked at 70.5 in October 2023, marking its highest reading since December 2008 (71.0). Since then, it has improved, reaching 61.2 in July 2025.
"In a time of extraordinary uncertainty, sometimes the best outcome is perhaps the one where there isn’t much of one. It might signal a shrinking of the uncertainty that can at times restrain economic activity," said John Tamny, the editor of RealClearMarkets.
“Americans' economic confidence weakened slightly in July. Concerns about inflation, the impact of tariffs, and an economic slowdown persist. Food prices are the #1 economic concern for Americans," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, who directed the survey. "Financial stress eased significantly in July.”
Economic Optimism Index Breakdown
This month, six of the 21 demographic groups tracked by RCM/TIPP, including age, gender, race, and education, are in positive territory, with scores above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. For comparison, there were seven in June, eight in May, and nine in April. Ten groups improved on the index, compared to 18 in June, five in May, and nine in April.
For the Six-Month Economic Outlook component, five of the 21 groups tracked by RCM/TIPP scored in optimistic territory, compared to five in June, five in May, and five in April. Economic Outlook sentiment improved for nine of the 21 groups, compared to 17 in June, nine in May, and six in April.
For the Personal Financial component, 16 of the 21 groups tracked by RCM/TIPP were optimistic, compared to 13 in June, 12 in May, and 18 in April. Nine groups rose compared to 16 in June, 10 in May, and 11 in April.
For the Federal Policies component, six of the 21 groups are above 50.0, compared to eight in June, seven in May, and five in April. Six groups rose compared to 15 in June, 15 in May, and five in April.
Release schedule for the balance of 2025
- Aug 2025: Tuesday, August 5
- Sep 2025: Tuesday, September 2
- Oct 2025: Tuesday, October 7
- Nov 2025: Tuesday, November 4
- Dec 2025: Tuesday, December 2
About TechnoMetrica/TIPP
TIPP is the polling unit of TechnoMetrica, a nationally renowned survey research and market research firm dedicated to providing clients with expert data-driven analysis to facilitate informed decision-making in their businesses. The TIPP Poll is considered the gold standard survey, having the unique distinction of being the most accurate presidential poll in the past five election cycles. The tippinsights unit provides editorials and commentaries on national and international issues, often appearing on the RealClearPolitics website.
About RealClearMarkets
RealClearMarkets (RCM) is a one-stop shop for market-related news, analysis, and commentary. RealClearMarkets collects and publishes business, finance, and economic content from across the ideological spectrum. Site features include Market Data, Off the Street Blogs, Quotes, Research Reports, Videos, Topics, and Facts & Fallacies.
RealClearMarkets falls underneath the umbrella of RealClear Media Group's (RCMG) brands, sites that span a spectrum of passions and interests. Visit realclearmediagroup.com
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