Basic income guarantees won’t define the future, opposite the predictions of more than a few AI visionaries. That’s because what replaces human effort does so by powerfully raising the productive value of human beings.
Machines and robots that will do for us and think for us won’t make us useless any more than extra hands in the proverbial factory render workers redundant. The more hands and machines, the more specialization per worker. Which means a great deal more productivity per worker.
It’s a happy way of saying that AI advances will make humans more valuable on the job than ever precisely because human effort will associate with more production than ever. The abundance promised by AI and other machine advances will stagger us while also logically employing us more commensurately with our individual talents.
What this says about the future is that with production soaring, so will soar the need for the people creating all the abundance to be entertained. The abundance will drive what I described as the “Entertainment Economy” in my 2018 book The End of Work.
To develop an ultimately primitive sense of where work is headed, it’s useful to watch the Netflix show, Instant Dream Home. In it, frequently large families living in run down houses are secretly chosen as the next recipients of free home remodels that are completed in twelve hours while the unsuspecting family is away.
Crews of 250+ quite literally transform the interior and exterior of houses, only for the families to return to living spaces very different from what they lived in twelve hours before. It’s interesting to see the rapid transformation, and it’s uplifting to see the tears born of excitement and gratitude.
All of it speaks to the genius of abundance. To produce is to consume, and in an age of immense production that’s driving down the cost of everything in concert with rising profits rooted in producing so much so cheaply, the logical result is entertainment that’s an effect of all this productivity. And the range of entertainment options will only grow.
For now, consider what this means for Instant Dream Home on its own. Exterior and interior design experts get to showcase their genius in front of the fascinated, and in surely evolving ways that will soon enough render the 12-hour remodel old hat.
What’s important here is that in watching the teams of remodelers at work, their passion is evident. It would have to be. The work is plainly very grueling given the time constraints, but it’s also heroic. Those doing it gain not just income, but psychic income that’s an effect of doing what elevates their skills the most all the while doing great turns for parents and kids who very much need the help.
It’s a signal of what’s ahead. People won’t seek available handouts, or legislated basic income guarantees. While guaranteed income is surely an effect of an incredibly rich country, it’s precisely in incredibly rich countries that opportunity is greatest.
Increasingly freed from drudgery by machines that will erase it in the physical and thought sense, people will specialize in growing ways. They won’t seek income guarantees, simply because they’ll get paid much more for doing what they can’t not do, and what they can’t imagine not doing. And they’ll do this work while improving the lives of people around them as they entertain many more.
Where we’re headed is The End of Laziness exactly at the time when the pay for indolence will be greater than ever. The good news is that no one will want it.
