There was no forgotten, downtrodden, so-called “Trump voter.” The latter was a creation of media members trying, and failing to understand the “exotics” outside the big coastal cities, and who voted for Donald Trump in 2016.
To understand the why behind the myth of the Trump voter, contemplate David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report’s discovery of Cracker Barrel’s predictivity in the 2016 and 2024 elections. Counties with a Cracker Barrel in them voted heavily for Trump.
Wasserman’s discovery disproves the popular view about the economics of the typical Trump voter. Supposedly the individuals most put upon by the alleged downside of free trade and globalization, the narrative goes that these economically struggling Trump voters broke for the presidential candidate in Trump in 2016 most notably, but in 2024 too.
Except for one problem: the economically struggling Trump voter is and was a myth. The previous truth can be found in Cracker Barrel, and its share price.
If you accept that globalization reached full flower in the 1990s under Bill Clinton (that’s a case made by David Lynch in his new book, The World’s Worst Bet), then it’s useful to track the alleged subsequent effects of it. For the purposes of this opinion piece, Cracker Barrel’s share price was tracked from December 31, 1999 to June 16, 2015.
In case readers have forgotten, it was on June 16, 2015 that Donald Trump famously came down the escalator at Trump Tower to announce his presidential bid. Media members tell us Trump’s anti-trade, anti-globalization rhetoric galvanized economically dispossessed, allegedly forgotten Americans across the country.
The problem with such a viewpoint is Cracker Barrel stock. While a share of the restaurant chain fetched $9.70 as the globalized 21st century dawned, by the time of Trump’s announcement of his presidential candidacy, that same Cracker Barrel share could be had for $147.21.
Translated, Cracker Barrel shares didn’t just rise in the years leading up to Trump’s announcement, they skyrocketed. Over the timeframe that Cracker Barrel’s shares increased 1,400 percent, the S&P 500 rose 43 just percent.
It’s worth thinking about. And in thinking about Cracker Barrel’s performance, it’s worth remembering that consumption is an effect of production. Cracker Barrel’s soaring share price during the years in which the so-called “Trump voter” was allegedly sidelined by global economic forces doesn’t in any way pencil.
Which isn’t surprising. Opposite the views of media members oh-so-eager to project onto Trump voters without bothering to understand them, there’s just no correlation between globalization and individual economic decline. How could there be? Seriously, how else to do the work we do best if we can’t divide it up?
Cracker’s Barrel’s share performance ably supports not the challenge of globalization for those in the counties that broke heavily in favor of Trump, but the genius of it. Just as Americans aren’t harmed by labor division among fellow Americans, they similarly aren’t harmed when they’re dividing up tasks with people and machines around the world.
All of which raises a basic question: why, if it wasn’t economic desperation, did so many Americans go for Trump? The bet here is that it was an affinity for Trump the individual, not the policy theorist. Right or wrong, they like his style.
It’s hopefully a wake-up call for Republicans who think protectionist bluster will take them to the White House in 2029. Sorry, but there’s only one Trump, and his appeal was always rooted in the person, not in the policies. Yes, Trump voters were and are well-to-do. Whatever its present difficulties, Cracker Barrel’s own prosperity mirrored theirs.
