Consumer sentiment weakened in October, as the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, the first monthly read on U.S. consumer confidence, slipped from 48.7 in September to 48.3, a modest 0.4-point (0.8%) decline. This marks the second consecutive month the index has remained below the neutral 50 benchmark, signaling continued pessimism.
October’s Economic Optimism Index reading of 48.3 is 1.74% below its 297-month historical average of 49.2.
Investor confidence fell 3.2% (2.0 points) to 60.5 in October, while non-investor confidence gained 1.2% (0.5 points) to 42.4. The confidence gap between investors and non-investors now stands at 18.1 points.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a strong track record of predicting the confidence indicators later released by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. From February 2001 to October 2023, TIPP released this index monthly in collaboration with its former sponsor and media partner, Investor's Business Daily.
RCM/TIPP surveyed 1,459 adults for the October index from September 30 to October 2. The online survey used TIPP's network of panels to obtain the sample.
The index is measured on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 50 indicate optimism, while those below 50 signal pessimism. A score of 50 is neutral.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In October, two of them declined.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, dropped 5.9%, from 45.5 in September to 42.8 in October.
- The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, gained 4.1% from its previous reading of 53.4 in September to 55.6 this month.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary RCM/TIPP measure of views on the effectiveness of government economic policies, weakened to 46.4 in October from 47.3 in September, a 1.9% decline. The component had crossed above the neutral 50.0 mark for the first time in August, ending a 47-month streak in pessimistic territory that began in September 2021, but slipped back below 50.0 in September.
RCM/TIPP also releases a companion measure, the Financial-Related Stress Index, the only monthly metric tracking Americans’ financial stress. The index dropped 2.0 points (3.1%) from 65.3 in September to 63.3 in October, echoing the easing of financial stress among Americans.
The higher the number, the more stress. Readings above 50 signal increased stress, while those below 50 indicate lower stress. A reading of 50 is considered neutral. For context, the last time the index posted below 50.0 was before the onset of the pandemic in February 2020, when it stood at 48.1.
The index has averaged 60.4 since December 2007. October’s reading of 65.3 exceeds this by 4.8%, signaling heightened financial stress relative to the long-term average.
“Americans produce in unparalleled fashion, which is why it's always concerning when their confidence declines. That's because when Americans grow less confident, the effects of their nerves are felt around the world. It's a reminder that American confidence as reflected in RCM/TIPP is a policy issue, but it's also a humanitarian one,” said John Tamny, the editor of RealClearMarkets.
“Americans’ economic confidence weakened in October for the second consecutive month,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, which conducted the survey. “Concerns about inflation and the impact of tariffs remain high, with food prices standing out as the leading economic worry.”
Economic Optimism Index Breakdown
This month, six of the 21 demographic groups tracked by RCM/TIPP, including age, gender, race, and education, are in positive territory, with scores above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. For comparison, there were seven in September, 10 in August, and six in July. Nine groups improved on the index, compared to three in September, 20 in August, and 10 in July.
For the Six-Month Economic Outlook component, four of the 21 groups tracked by RCM/TIPP scored in optimistic territory, compared to five in September, five in August, and five in July. Economic Outlook sentiment improved for four groups, compared to nine in September, 21 in August, and nine in July.
For the Personal Financial component, 18 of the 21 groups tracked by RCM/TIPP were optimistic, compared to 12 in September, 17 in August, and 16 in July. 17 groups rose compared to six in September, 20 in August, and nine in July.
For the Federal Policies component, six of the 21 groups are above 50.0, compared to five in September, eight in August, and six in July. Eight of the twenty-one groups rose compared to one in September, 21 in August, and six in July.
Release schedule for the remainder of 2025
- Nov 2025: Tuesday, November 4
- Dec 2025: Tuesday, December 2
About TechnoMetrica/TIPP
TIPP is the polling unit of TechnoMetrica, a nationally renowned survey research and market research firm dedicated to providing clients with expert data-driven analysis to facilitate informed decision-making in their businesses. The TIPP Poll is considered the gold standard survey, having the unique distinction of being the most accurate presidential poll in the past six election cycles. The tippinsights unit provides editorials and commentaries on national and international issues, often appearing on the RealClearPolitics website.
About RealClearMarkets
RealClearMarkets (RCM) is a one-stop shop for market-related news, analysis, and commentary. RealClearMarkets collects and publishes business, finance, and economic content from across the ideological spectrum. Site features include Market Data, Off the Street Blogs, Quotes, Research Reports, Videos, Topics, and Facts & Fallacies.
RealClearMarkets falls underneath the umbrella of RealClear Media Group's (RCMG) brands, sites that span a spectrum of passions and interests. Visit realclearmediagroup.com
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