The November reading of 43.9 marks a steep 9% monthly decline and a widening gap between investors and non-investors.
Consumer sentiment weakened in November, as the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, the first monthly read on U.S. consumer confidence, declined from 48.3 in October to 43.9, a sharp 4.4-point (9.1%) drop. This marks the third consecutive month the index has remained below the neutral 50 benchmark, signaling continued pessimism.
November’s Economic Optimism Index reading of 43.9 is 10.7% below its 298-month historical average of 49.2.
Explore the data in real time: Track the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index on RealClearMarkets. View monthly trends, compare components, and analyze shifts in sentiment across demographics.
Investor confidence fell 3.1% (1.9 points) to 58.6 in November, while non-investor confidence dropped 10.4% (4.4 points) to 38.0. The confidence gap between investors and non-investors widened from 18.1 to 20.6 points.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a strong track record of predicting the confidence indicators later released by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. From February 2001 to October 2023, TIPP released this index monthly in collaboration with its former sponsor and media partner, Investor's Business Daily.
RCM/TIPP surveyed 1,418 adults for the November index from October 28 to October 31. The online survey used TIPP's network of panels to obtain the sample.
The index is measured on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 50 indicate optimism, while those below 50 signal pessimism. A score of 50 is neutral.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In November, all of them declined.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, dropped 6.5%, from 42.8 in October to 40.0 in November.
- The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, declined 9.0% from its previous reading of 55.6 in October to 50.6 this month.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary RCM/TIPP measure of views on the effectiveness of government economic policies, weakened to 41.1 in November from 46.4 in October, a 11.4% decline. The component had crossed above the neutral 50.0 mark for the first time in August, ending a 47-month streak in pessimistic territory that began in September 2021, but slipped back below 50.0 in September.
RCM/TIPP also releases a companion measure, the Financial-Related Stress Index, the only monthly metric tracking Americans’ financial stress. The index rose 1.9 points (3.0%) from 63.3 in October to 65.2 in November, echoing increasing financial stress among Americans.
The higher the number, the more stress. Readings above 50 signal increased stress, while those below 50 indicate lower stress. A reading of 50 is considered neutral. For context, the last time the index posted below 50.0 was before the onset of the pandemic in February 2020, when it stood at 48.1.
The index has averaged 60.4 since December 2007. November’s reading of 65.2 exceeds this by 7.9%, signaling heightened financial stress relative to the long-term average.
“The people are the market, and the American people are a particularly telling market. If their consumer confidence is shrinking, by extension their production must be. When the world's greatest producers are nervous, the world should be nervous too,” said John Tamny, the editor of RealClearMarkets.
“Americans’ economic confidence sharply declined in November for the third consecutive month,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, which conducted the survey. “Concerns about inflation and the impact of tariffs remain high, with food prices standing out as the leading economic worry. Additionally, the government shutdown is having a profound impact on the national psyche. An over-cautious monetary policy is paralyzing weaker sectors of the economy, such as housing, and dampening public confidence.”
Economic Optimism Index Breakdown
This month, four of the 21 demographic groups tracked by RCM/TIPP, including age, gender, race, and education, are in positive territory, with scores above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. For comparison, there were six in October, seven in September, and 10 in August. None of the groups improved on the index, compared to nine in October, three in September, and 20 in August.
For the Six-Month Economic Outlook component, three of the 21 groups tracked by RCM/TIPP scored in optimistic territory, compared to four in October, five in September, and five in August. Economic Outlook sentiment improved for two groups, compared to four in October, nine in September, and 21 in August.
For the Personal Financial component, 10 of the 21 groups tracked by RCM/TIPP were optimistic, compared to 18 in October, 12 in September, and 17 in August. One group rose compared to 17 in October, six in September, and 20 in August.
For the Federal Policies component, three of the 21 groups are above 50.0, compared to six in October, five in September, and eight in August. None of the twenty-one groups rose compared to eight in October, one in September, and 21 in August.
Release schedule for the remainder of 2025
- Dec 2025: Tuesday, December 2
About TechnoMetrica/TIPP
TIPP is the polling unit of TechnoMetrica, a nationally renowned survey research and market research firm dedicated to providing clients with expert data-driven analysis to facilitate informed decision-making in their businesses. The TIPP Poll is considered the gold standard survey, having the unique distinction of being the most accurate presidential poll in the past six election cycles. The tippinsights unit provides editorials and commentaries on national and international issues, often appearing on the RealClearPolitics website.
About RealClearMarkets
RealClearMarkets (RCM) is a one-stop shop for market-related news, analysis, and commentary. RealClearMarkets collects and publishes business, finance, and economic content from across the ideological spectrum. Site features include Market Data, Off the Street Blogs, Quotes, Research Reports, Videos, Topics, and Facts & Fallacies.
RealClearMarkets falls underneath the umbrella of RealClear Media Group's (RCMG) brands, sites that span a spectrum of passions and interests. Visit realclearmediagroup.com
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