Every Christmas season, I have composed a “review and outlook” for the economy set to the rhythm and meter of Clement Moore’s classic, “A Visit from St. Nicholas.” In this year’s rendition – the 42nd – “St. Nick” makes his annual appearance, sharing his perspectives on yet another momentous year as well as hopeful outlook for the year ahead.
’Twas the Night Before Christmas
An Economic Review and Outlook
David H. Resler (dhresler@aol.com)
’Twas the night before Christmas, the stars shining bright,
And, as always I’ve done on each Christmas eve night,
I anxiously waited for St. Nick to appear,
And share both his wisdom and good holiday cheer.
The clock striking midnight was the jolly elf’s cue
’Cause there he stood, saying; “It’s so good to see you!”
“It’s been quite a full year since the last time we met,
“And it’s surely been one that we won’t soon forget.”
St. Nick noted how Trump started his second term
With blust’ry bravado and commitments held firm.
After four years being lulled by “Sleepy Old Joe,”
No one was quite ready for Trump’s really big show.
Trump hit the ground running and he hasn’t yet paused
And like it or not, there’s been much chaos he’s caused.
He wasted no time in securing the border,
And vowed he would bring back old rules, law and order.
Trump said, “The government’s become lazy and fat,”
So he and Musk met for a tough cost-cutting chat.
He then ordered DOGE to cut waste, fraud and abuse,
Seeking to end programs that had outlived their use.
Trump clearly loves tariffs as both carrot and stick
But if things veer from plan his mind changes right quick.
But tariffs, like taxes, may confuse and distort
So good outcomes aren’t certain, it’s sad to report.
Next on the agenda – Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,”
That Democrats hated but just couldn’t quite kill.
Then to make sure that his economy would grow
Trump made it clear he wanted interest rates low.
When the Fed moved too slow with a rate-cutting plan
Trump said, “Chairman Powell is just not the right man.”
The Fed chatter’s turned noisy, it’s signals now mixed.
So its course for the future is clearly not fixed.
“The dual mandate’s to blame,” St. Nick said, “I’m sure,”
“Stable prices are the only mission that’s pure.”
“So if inflation’s above the Fed’s target rate,”
“Cutting too soon is worse than a little bit late.”
“Free markets work in ways magically sublime.”
“So growth and full employment will come in due time.”
St. Nick kept chatting and gave no hint of resting,
He raved ’bout new highs stocks have lately been testing.
He said “It’s A-I that’s driving markets higher
“But with so many risks, I’m not a big buyer.”
“Can this intelligence we call artificial,
“Be trusted always to be so beneficial?”
Such tough questions always have a right time and place.
But noting the doubts now deeply etched on my face,
St. Nick spoke the wisest words he ever did say,
“You will never get rich if fear stands in your way.”
St. Nick then declared “I’ve said enough ’bout the past,”
“It’s now time to share with you my latest forecast.”
“Unlike most forecasts that are both wordy and wrong,
“My outlook will prove right and won’t take very long.”
“The year now ahead will bring wealth, growth and glory.”
“And that’s how I’ll end this year’s Christmas eve story.”
“Now lift up your cup full of sweet holiday cheer,
“As we raise a toast for a prosperous new year.”
