Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett should select his words more wisely. He promises Operation Economic Outcast will be the "economic D-Day" that delivers final victory over the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is an unwise choice of words considering that nine months after allied forces broke out of the Normandy beachhead established on D-Day, World War II in Europe was over. This conflict with Iran is into its seventh month with no conclusion in sight, despite the Islamic Republic’s military power being a non-existent shadow of Nazi Germany’s.
A key element of Bessett’s plan is to force nations trading with the United States to sever all economic interactions with Iran. Instead of getting America out of this self-dug hole, Operation Economic Outcast is only getting deeper. Like the conflict itself, Operation Economic Outcast is very poorly thought out. It also brings back memories of President George W. Bush’s ill-conceived proclamation, “Either you are with us or with the terrorists.”
If put into action, this plan will undermine America’s Middle East allies who have stayed with us. They are using their air defense systems to block attacks and suffering the consequences of the ordnance that does get through. They continue to allow American military forces to operate bases in their countries. Bessett needs to realize this loyalty is not infinite. He needs to enlighten himself on the assessment attributed to French President Charles de Gaulle: “No nation has friends, only interests.” Operation Economic Outcast will cause these countries to reevaluate military alliances against their own economic interests.
Further sanctions against Tehran or forcing other governments to end long-term economic relations with the Islamic Republic will not cause the Iranian government to collapse. The fundamentalist government is not concerned with the welfare of its citizenry. By Iran’s own estimates, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) machine-gunned down 36,000 protesters last January. Amnesty International places the number of victims much higher.
As long as the IRGC has food, water, and weapons; it will remain the number one threat to the Iranian people. Armed with drones and mobile missile systems, the IRGC will continue to terrorize the Middle East and especially the Strait of Hormuz.
The nation most impacted by Bessett’s Operation Economic Outcast will be the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE is Iran's second largest trading partner. It will be difficult -- if not impossible -- for the government of the UAE to meet Trump Administration demands pertaining to sanctions on Iran. The economies of the two nations are too closely interconnected to allow for uncoupling. In trying to temporarily cooperate with the demands, UAE has announced that “all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran have been halted until further notice.” This can only last for a limited period of time.
The U.S. naval blockade has shut down transshipments and smuggling between Iran and criminal elements within the UAE. Curtailing illegal activity after the conflict concludes is a UAE problem. Less easy to control is Tehran’s shadow banking activity which operates freely in Dubai. In the past decade, the United States has sanctioned well over 300 UAE affiliated organizations for illicit financial transactions with Iran. To deal with this problem and to minimize its global consequences, the UAE needs US tracking and investigative support. Rather than address the corruption problem, economic penalties coming from Bessett’s Operation Economic Outcast may serve as an opportunity for criminal expansion.
Cracking down on UAE shadow banking will result in Iran continuing its operations by shifting pre-established alternatives. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi’s personally owned and operated Al-Janoob Islamic Bank has already been sanctioned for illegally transferring over a billion dollars to Iran. With its own under-the-radar banking system in place, China is already working on its shadow tankers and Belt and Road initiative to transport oil out of Iran.
President Trump’s actions have already created chaos for countries dependent upon Middle East oil. Adding insult to injury, Trump boasts that America now has access to Venezuelan oil. This does nothing to help other countries. Instead, it causes further alienation resulting from the “America First” strategy that has dominated international policy and trade since the beginning of Trump’s second term.
For months now Trump has claimed he does not wish for regime change in Iran, but rather a firm assurance that the Islamic Republic will discontinue its quest for a nuclear weapon. If regime change was not the goal, then why was Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his senior staff eliminated in the opening salvo? Furthermore, only when this fundamentalist regime is removed from power will Iran cease its pursuit of a nuclear weapon.
The adage “Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing only after they have tried everything else” certainly applies to Bessett’s Operation Economic Outcast. When it is realized that this plan does not work, the Trump Administration will come up with another silver bullet...and one after that. Meanwhile, the only nations Secretary Bessett’s plan will harm are the ones America needs the most.
