Headline Index Rises to 48.5 as All Three Components Advance and 17 of 21 Groups Improve; the Investor–Non-Investor Gap Sets a Second Straight Record at 25.3 Points
Consumer sentiment improved for a third straight month in November as the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, the first monthly reading of U.S. consumer confidence, rose to 48.5 from 46.8 in October, a 1.7-point (3.6%) gain. In its final reading before today's midterm elections, the index reached its highest level since February, and all three of its components advanced. Unlike October, the gains were broad: 17 of the 21 demographic groups we track improved, and optimism rose in every income bracket.
The index has now remained below the neutral 50 mark for fifteen consecutive months, keeping the nation in what we classify as the pessimism zone.
November's reading is 1.0% below the 310-month historical average of 49.0, the closest the index has come to its long-term norm since February.
Investor confidence rose to 64.2 from 62.3 in October, its highest reading since August 2025 and a fifth consecutive month above the neutral 50 mark. Non-investor optimism also improved, rising to 38.9 from 37.2. Investors gained more, however, and the confidence gap widened from 25.1 to 25.3 points. That is the widest separation between the two groups since the index began in February 2001, breaking the record set just last month.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a strong track record of anticipating the consumer confidence indicators later released by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. From February 2001 to October 2023, TIPP released this index monthly in collaboration with its former sponsor and media partner, Investor's Business Daily.
RCM/TIPP surveyed 1,480 adults for the November index from October 27 to October 30. The online survey was conducted using TIPP's panel network. The credibility interval is ±2.8 percentage points.
The index is measured on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 50 indicate optimism, while those below 50 signal pessimism. A score of 50 is neutral.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In November, all three rose: the Six-Month Outlook posted its strongest gain, reaching its highest level in more than a year, while the Personal Financial Outlook extended its run above 50, and confidence in federal economic policies advanced for a sixth straight month.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, rose 6.1%, from 42.7 in October to 45.3 in November, a third consecutive gain and its highest reading since September 2025.
- The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, rose 1.3%, from 53.4 in October to 54.1 in November, its highest reading since March and a 29th consecutive month above the neutral 50 line.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary RCM/TIPP measure of views on the effectiveness of government economic policies, rose 3.6%, from 44.4 in October to 46.0 in November, a sixth consecutive monthly gain and its highest reading since October 2025.
RCM/TIPP also releases a companion measure, the Financial-Related Stress Index, the only monthly metric tracking Americans' financial stress. The index declined 2.2%, from 64.5 in October to 63.1 in November, its lowest reading since July. Unlike October's narrow dip, the improvement was broad: stress eased for 16 of the 21 demographic groups we track and rose for five.
The higher the number, the more stress. Readings above 50 signal increased stress, while those below 50 indicate lower stress. A reading of 50 is considered neutral. For context, the last time the index posted below 50.0 was before the onset of the pandemic in February 2020, when it stood at 48.1.
The index has averaged 60.6 since December 2007. November's reading of 63.1 exceeds the long-term average by 4.1%, signaling that financial stress remains above its historical norm.
"I say it repeatedly, but progress is a constant with the American people. This is particularly true when divided government results in shrunken barriers to production. That's one way to look at rising optimism right now. And it's a hopeful way of looking at things,” said John Tamny, the editor of RealClearMarkets.
“November brought the broadest improvement in economic sentiment we've seen in months,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica. “The index rose to 48.5, its best reading since February and within a point of its long-term average. All three components advanced, 17 of the 21 groups we track improved, and every income bracket moved up. Financial stress eased for most groups as well. But investors still gained more than everyone else, and the gap between investors and non-investors set a new record for the second month in a row. Americans head into Election Day more upbeat about the economy than they have been in nine months, though still short of genuine optimism.”
Economic Optimism Index Breakdown
This month, eight of the 21 demographic groups tracked by RCM/TIPP, including age, gender, and income, are in positive territory, with scores above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. For comparison, there were seven in October, seven in September, and five in August. Seventeen groups improved on the index, compared to twelve in October, thirteen in September, and eight in August.
For the Six-Month Economic Outlook component, six of the 21 groups tracked by RCM/TIPP scored in optimistic territory, compared to six in October, five in September, and one in August. Economic Outlook sentiment improved for seventeen groups, compared to twelve in October, fifteen in September, and four in August.
For the Personal Financial component, eleven of the 21 groups tracked by RCM/TIPP were optimistic, compared to eleven in October, eleven in September, and thirteen in August. Thirteen groups rose, compared to thirteen in October, nine in September, and ten in August.
For the Federal Policies component, seven of the 21 groups exceeded 50.0, compared to six in October, five in September, and four in August. Sixteen groups rose, compared to thirteen in October, thirteen in September, and eleven in August.
About TechnoMetrica/TIPP
TIPP is the polling unit of TechnoMetrica, a nationally renowned survey research and market research firm dedicated to providing clients with expert data-driven analysis to facilitate informed decision-making in their businesses. The TIPP Poll is considered the gold standard survey, having the unique distinction of being the most accurate presidential poll in the past six election cycles. The tippinsights unit provides editorials and commentaries on national and international issues, often appearing on the RealClearPolitics website.
About RealClearMarkets
RealClearMarkets (RCM) is a one-stop shop for market-related news, analysis, and commentary. RealClearMarkets collects and publishes business, finance, and economic content from across the ideological spectrum. Site features include Market Data, Off the Street Blogs, Quotes, Research Reports, Videos, Topics, and Facts & Fallacies.
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