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Jun 5, 2026
Two of the more numerate shops in the prediction business published 2026 World Cup probabilities within days of each other. Goldman Sachs ran 50,000 Monte Carlo tournaments off an...
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Jun 2, 2026
An Upper East Side bar is hedging a free-drinks promotion on a prediction market. The exchange calls it a milestone. The algebra calls it a 37%-off sale with extra steps. Kalshi...
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May 11, 2026
This article is excerpted from the forthcoming book Wrong Number (Wiley, May 12, 2026)
In 1974, an economist at the University of Nevada–Reno named Bill Eadington called a...
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May 1, 2026
The University of Michigan released its final April reading on Friday: 49.8 on the Consumer Sentiment Index, the lowest number in the survey's seventy-four-year history. It is worse...
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Apr 17, 2026
Planet Money recently published a piece titled "The Labor Economics of Alien and Its Lessons for Inequality on Earth." It describes itself as a preview of a new book about monopsony...
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Apr 14, 2026
In August 1955, Isaac Asimov published a short story called “Franchise” that described the 2008 presidential election. By then, a supercomputer called Multivac had made...
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Apr 9, 2026
In 1934, a best-selling book called Merchants of Death made a simple and outrageous argument: that arms manufacturers had conspired to drag the United States into World War...
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Apr 7, 2026
For decades, the case for restoring gold to its monetary role has been made with great intellectual seriousness and small political effect. Lewis Lehrman made it. Steve Forbes made...
Jun 5, 2026Two of the more numerate shops in the prediction business published 2026 World Cup probabilities within days of each other. Goldman Sachs ran 50,000 Monte Carlo tournaments off an...
Jun 2, 2026An Upper East Side bar is hedging a free-drinks promotion on a prediction market. The exchange calls it a milestone. The algebra calls it a 37%-off sale with extra steps. Kalshi...
May 11, 2026This article is excerpted from the forthcoming book Wrong Number (Wiley, May 12, 2026) In 1974, an economist at the University of Nevada–Reno named Bill Eadington called a...
May 1, 2026The University of Michigan released its final April reading on Friday: 49.8 on the Consumer Sentiment Index, the lowest number in the survey's seventy-four-year history. It is worse...
Apr 17, 2026Planet Money recently published a piece titled "The Labor Economics of Alien and Its Lessons for Inequality on Earth." It describes itself as a preview of a new book about monopsony...
Apr 14, 2026In August 1955, Isaac Asimov published a short story called “Franchise” that described the 2008 presidential election. By then, a supercomputer called Multivac had made...
Apr 9, 2026In 1934, a best-selling book called Merchants of Death made a simple and outrageous argument: that arms manufacturers had conspired to drag the United States into World War...
Apr 7, 2026For decades, the case for restoring gold to its monetary role has been made with great intellectual seriousness and small political effect. Lewis Lehrman made it. Steve Forbes made...