Bill Smead

Author Archive

  • Jul 3, 2024
    We are contrarians and oddly crave the moments when history, psychology and mathematics get defied in the U.S. stock market. We believe this is one of those points in time. [...]
  • Jun 12, 2024
    We have gained a number of new investors and get regular vetting interest from investors who need to understand the roots of our stock-picking discipline. Our stock-picking...
  • May 30, 2024
    [...] What Bill called “everyone thinking alike” we call a well-known fact. A well-known fact is a body of economic information that is not only known by all market participants...
  • May 22, 2024
    Back in 1993, a brilliant satirist by the name of Ivan Reitman produced a movie called "Dave." It was the story of a life-threatening stroke besetting the President of the United...
  • May 8, 2024
  • May 1, 2024
    We’ve recently been making the case that the current circumstances in the stock market are most like the late 1960s and 1970s. Euphoric enthusiasm for the most aggressive stocks...
  • Mar 20, 2024
    [...] The U.S. Federal Government has set a net zero carbon goal by 2050. Tremendous resources have been applied with borrowed money to fund these goals and subsidize money-losing...
  • Feb 14, 2024
    In studies, 90% of drivers think they are above average. We believe that 100% of the people who pick stocks for a living think they will be above average. Is being above average a...
  • Jan 24, 2024
    Warren Buffett regularly reminds his shareholders that interest rates are a gravitational pull to stock prices. History shows that the movement of stock prices and interest rates...
  • Jan 10, 2024
    A friend of our stock picking discipline reminded us of a very important force in the stock market. It was called the 70/20/10 rule, and it was promoted by Roger Edelman, Richard...