Author Archive
-
Sep 15, 2026The Fed is likely to raise rates on Wednesday. Here's what a hike can do, what it can't, and why the explanation matters as much as the decision. -
Sep 9, 2026Why I moved from hold to hike ahead of the Fed's September meeting. -
Sep 2, 2026Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole was the introduction to the Fed Chair we deserved. In two weeks, the real work begins. -
Jul 29, 2026The FOMC statement, not the press conference, may be the best window into where the Fed is headed. Here's my mockup for Wednesday. -
Jul 20, 2026Redefining inflation is not the way to achieve price stability. -
Jun 30, 2026Independence, inflation, and communication -
Jun 23, 2026Kevin Warsh may want a quieter Fed, but markets will fill the silence, just less reliably and at a high cost.
-
Jun 17, 2026Warsh says he wants one, inflation demands it, and the dot plot is how we'd see it. -
Jun 10, 2026Elevated inflation now is about unusual patterns in the tails, not the broad-based heat. -
Jun 2, 2026A time of disruption is a time when expectations can play an outsized role in shaping the economy’s path. -
May 15, 2026Today, May 15, is Jay Powell’s final day as Fed Chair. -
May 8, 2026April's Jobs Day is Friday. -
Apr 29, 2026After eight years, Wednesday will be the last time that Powell steps up to the podium as Fed Chair. -
Apr 22, 2026Tuesday, April 21, is a day Kevin Warsh has long awaited: his Senate confirmation hearing for Fed Chair. -
Apr 20, 2026Expect the unexpected has become the most useful rule of thumb for the economy. -
Feb 23, 2026U.S. economic statistics are not being manipulated, but underinvestment has intensified. -
Feb 11, 2026Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year, even without a recession. -
Feb 3, 2026Last week, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair.
