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Aug 25, 2026
US economic activity remains on track to strengthen in the third quarter, based on the latest nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. But the degree of the estimated rebound has...
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Aug 19, 2026
The US 30‑year Treasury yield rose sharply on Monday, breaking higher after spending the first half of August in a tight range. The move signals the bond market’s growing...
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Aug 14, 2026
Consumer inflation eased in July, providing the Federal Reserve with a fresh round of data to stay patient on the decision of whether to raise interest rates. The bond market remains...
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Aug 13, 2026
Foreign equities continue to outperform U.S. stocks this year, but there are signs that international leadership is faltering, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close...
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Aug 5, 2026
Markets remained mixed for a second month in July, based on a set of ETFs tracking the major asset classes.
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Jul 2, 2026
Markets were mixed in June after two solid monthly gains, based on a set of ETFs. Most of the major asset classes lost ground last month, with a handful of exceptions on the upside,...
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Jun 24, 2026
Yes, as it usually does.
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Jun 19, 2026
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in his public debut on Wednesday, said that “This Committee will deliver price stability,” signaling that a hawkish tilt was...
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Jun 3, 2026
Most markets continued to rise in May, extending April’s bounce-back after March’s broad and deep selloff, based on a set of ETFs. The main exception among the major...
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May 21, 2026
The 10‑year real US Treasury yield is hovering near a 20‑year high, with the 5‑year not far behind.
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May 19, 2026
The Treasury market has already decided that tighter monetary policy is necessary.
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Apr 29, 2026
Winning Senate approval may be the easy part.
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Apr 7, 2026
Global markets are entering a sixth week of stress testing as the war with Iran continues with no immediate resolution in sight.
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Apr 2, 2026
A roundup of recent research on stock market crash risks.
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Mar 24, 2026
No one knows where full capitulation and maximum drawdown ultimately lie, but the conditions that accompany selling exhaustion will likely align with recurring signs of relative...
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Mar 20, 2026
Sometimes a central bank’s vaunted research machine offers insights no sharper than whatever you’d get from chatting with a guy waiting at the bus stop
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Mar 13, 2026
The potential for economic aftershocks won’t provide clarity for the Fed’s calculus anytime soon.
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Feb 13, 2026
Energy, basic materials, and defensive consumer stocks are in. Tech and financials are out. That, at least, is Mr. Market’s view so far in 2026, based on a set of US equity...
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Feb 4, 2026
Commodities and foreign stocks led the performance race in January for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETF proxies.
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Jan 29, 2026
Confidence in the economy fell sharply in January, slumping to a 12-year low, according to the Conference Board latest survey data.
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Jan 28, 2026
Prices for raw materials have rocketed higher so far this year, outperforming the rest of the major asset classes by a wide margin.
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Jan 5, 2026
Global markets endured a volatile run in 2025, but when the last trades closed on Dec. 31 all the major asset classes posted gains for the year.
Aug 25, 2026US economic activity remains on track to strengthen in the third quarter, based on the latest nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. But the degree of the estimated rebound has...
Aug 19, 2026The US 30‑year Treasury yield rose sharply on Monday, breaking higher after spending the first half of August in a tight range. The move signals the bond market’s growing...
Aug 14, 2026Consumer inflation eased in July, providing the Federal Reserve with a fresh round of data to stay patient on the decision of whether to raise interest rates. The bond market remains...
Aug 13, 2026Foreign equities continue to outperform U.S. stocks this year, but there are signs that international leadership is faltering, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close...
Aug 5, 2026Markets remained mixed for a second month in July, based on a set of ETFs tracking the major asset classes. 
Jul 2, 2026Markets were mixed in June after two solid monthly gains, based on a set of ETFs. Most of the major asset classes lost ground last month, with a handful of exceptions on the upside,...
Jun 24, 2026Yes, as it usually does.
Jun 19, 2026Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in his public debut on Wednesday, said that “This Committee will deliver price stability,” signaling that a hawkish tilt was...
Jun 3, 2026Most markets continued to rise in May, extending April’s bounce-back after March’s broad and deep selloff, based on a set of ETFs. The main exception among the major...
May 21, 2026The 10‑year real US Treasury yield is hovering near a 20‑year high, with the 5‑year not far behind. 
May 19, 2026The Treasury market has already decided that tighter monetary policy is necessary. 
Apr 29, 2026Winning Senate approval may be the easy part.
Apr 7, 2026Global markets are entering a sixth week of stress testing as the war with Iran continues with no immediate resolution in sight. 
Apr 2, 2026A roundup of recent research on stock market crash risks.
Mar 24, 2026No one knows where full capitulation and maximum drawdown ultimately lie, but the conditions that accompany selling exhaustion will likely align with recurring signs of relative...
Mar 20, 2026Sometimes a central bank’s vaunted research machine offers insights no sharper than whatever you’d get from chatting with a guy waiting at the bus stop
Mar 13, 2026The potential for economic aftershocks won’t provide clarity for the Fed’s calculus anytime soon.
Feb 13, 2026Energy, basic materials, and defensive consumer stocks are in. Tech and financials are out. That, at least, is Mr. Market’s view so far in 2026, based on a set of US equity...
Feb 4, 2026Commodities and foreign stocks led the performance race in January for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETF proxies. 
Jan 29, 2026Confidence in the economy fell sharply in January, slumping to a 12-year low, according to the Conference Board latest survey data. 
Jan 5, 2026Global markets endured a volatile run in 2025, but when the last trades closed on Dec. 31 all the major asset classes posted gains for the year.