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Jul 23, 2024
There's been a pretty remarkable turnaround in markets over the last 10 days. At the end of June, market returns were dominated by large cap growth stocks. The Russell 1000 growth...
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Jul 16, 2024
Special Note On Hurricane Beryl: As thousands of people in coastal Texas remain without power after Hurricane Beryl devastated the region last week, relief groups on the ground are...
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Jul 9, 2024
The economic data wasn't particularly shocking or weak but it seemed as if last week may have marked a change in the economic outlook. The 10-year Treasury note yield only fell 7...
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Jul 2, 2024
The 2nd quarter is officially over and it was one of the strangest I’ve experienced in my 33 year career. To jump straight to the punchline, if you owned large cap growth stocks,...
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Jun 25, 2024
Any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long. True of Habsburg Spain, true of ancien...
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Jun 18, 2024
The S&P 500 reached a milestone recently. Or at least I think so. The technology sector, as of this week, is now 33.6% of the index. If you count the Communications sector as...
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Jun 11, 2024
The employment report released last Friday offered contradictory views of the state of the economy. The Current Employment Survey (also called the payroll or establishment survey),...
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Jun 4, 2024
"The uncertainty about where neutral is today creates a challenge for policymakers." - Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Last week was a volatile one for markets...
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May 29, 2024
A recent poll conducted by Harris and the UK news outlet The Guardian, produced some interesting results. Of those polled: 56% believe the US economy is in recession 49% believe the...
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May 21, 2024
There were two important inflation reports last week. One of them, the Producer Price Index, focuses on wholesale prices and it showed inflation hotter than expected in April. The...
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May 14, 2024
Special Note: Back in late March, I highlighted a charitable organization - Our Grounds - that I had had a very positive interaction with and asked that you consider donating. I also...
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May 7, 2024
Coming into last week's FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell was expected to be hawkish. I know that because numerous articles in the financial press told me so which makes me wonder if the...
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Apr 30, 2024
Be careful what you wish for lest it come true! - Various of Aesop's Fables Shinzo Abe was elected to a second term as Japanese Prime Minister in 2012 and launched his three arrows...
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Apr 23, 2024
Is this normal? I haven't made any money in like two years. - Question from a recent acquaintance upon hearing what I do for a living Let's get this out of the way quickly. The...
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Apr 16, 2024
Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report that wasn't actually that bad (see below). Not that my - or your - opinion about these things...
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Apr 9, 2024
Markets year to date have been a lot more interesting in the details than the headlines you get in the financial media. The narrative has focused almost exclusively on Artificial...
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Apr 2, 2024
The first quarter of 2024 is in the books and the US economy and markets continue to defy expectations, which coming into this year were that growth and inflation would both moderate...
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Mar 26, 2024
Special Note: I'm in Miami this week, a mix of business and personal. I lived here for 30 years and we raised our family here but we moved to South Carolina a little over 3 years ago...
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Mar 19, 2024
Over the last two years, the evolution of the US economy has been driven by a return to “normal”. The distortions of the response to COVID had a profound impact on the economy...
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Mar 12, 2024
I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. Wayne Gretzky I took my wife to dinner Saturday night at a local, boutique hotel. The Willcox Hotel was established...
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Feb 27, 2024
Nvidia reported earnings last week and they were, to be sober about it, incredible. Total revenue rose to $22.1 billion for the quarter, up 22% from last quarter and 265%...
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Feb 21, 2024
Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are...
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Feb 13, 2024
When I sat down to write this week's commentary, my intention was to write - again - about the valuation of the stock market and particularly the S&P 500. And even more specifically...
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Feb 6, 2024
The 10-year Treasury Note yield fell 13 basis points last week, a move that would not normally rate any mention whatsoever, but the path of that small decline does. From Monday to...
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Jan 30, 2024
We got the latest report on economic growth last week and it surprised most everyone. Real GDP expanded by an annualized 3.3% in the fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate...
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Jan 23, 2024
The financial commentariat first started to worry about recession in April of 2022 when the spread between the 10-year Treasury rate and the 2-year Treasury rate turned negative -...
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Jan 17, 2024
It's an election year and you know what that means. Yes, every four years we gather as a nation, a democratic nation, to decide which of the two candidates for President available to...
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Jan 9, 2024
I'm back! I took most of the month of December off, as I do every year, to do some thinking. Per the title of this essay, the purpose of these year-end musings is to gain some...
Jul 23, 2024There's been a pretty remarkable turnaround in markets over the last 10 days. At the end of June, market returns were dominated by large cap growth stocks. The Russell 1000 growth...
Jul 16, 2024Special Note On Hurricane Beryl: As thousands of people in coastal Texas remain without power after Hurricane Beryl devastated the region last week, relief groups on the ground are...
Jul 9, 2024The economic data wasn't particularly shocking or weak but it seemed as if last week may have marked a change in the economic outlook. The 10-year Treasury note yield only fell 7...
Jul 2, 2024The 2nd quarter is officially over and it was one of the strangest I’ve experienced in my 33 year career. To jump straight to the punchline, if you owned large cap growth stocks,...
Jun 25, 2024Any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long. True of Habsburg Spain, true of ancien...
Jun 11, 2024The employment report released last Friday offered contradictory views of the state of the economy. The Current Employment Survey (also called the payroll or establishment survey),...
Jun 4, 2024"The uncertainty about where neutral is today creates a challenge for policymakers." - Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Last week was a volatile one for markets...
May 29, 2024A recent poll conducted by Harris and the UK news outlet The Guardian, produced some interesting results. Of those polled: 56% believe the US economy is in recession 49% believe the...
May 14, 2024Special Note: Back in late March, I highlighted a charitable organization - Our Grounds - that I had had a very positive interaction with and asked that you consider donating. I also...
Apr 30, 2024Be careful what you wish for lest it come true! - Various of Aesop's Fables Shinzo Abe was elected to a second term as Japanese Prime Minister in 2012 and launched his three arrows...
Apr 23, 2024Is this normal? I haven't made any money in like two years. - Question from a recent acquaintance upon hearing what I do for a living Let's get this out of the way quickly. The...
Apr 16, 2024Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report that wasn't actually that bad (see below). Not that my - or your - opinion about these things...
Apr 9, 2024Markets year to date have been a lot more interesting in the details than the headlines you get in the financial media. The narrative has focused almost exclusively on Artificial...
Apr 2, 2024The first quarter of 2024 is in the books and the US economy and markets continue to defy expectations, which coming into this year were that growth and inflation would both moderate...
Mar 19, 2024Over the last two years, the evolution of the US economy has been driven by a return to “normal”. The distortions of the response to COVID had a profound impact on the economy...
Feb 27, 2024Nvidia reported earnings last week and they were, to be sober about it, incredible. Total revenue rose to $22.1 billion for the quarter, up 22% from last quarter and 265%...
Feb 21, 2024Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are...
Feb 13, 2024When I sat down to write this week's commentary, my intention was to write - again - about the valuation of the stock market and particularly the S&P 500. And even more specifically...
Feb 6, 2024The 10-year Treasury Note yield fell 13 basis points last week, a move that would not normally rate any mention whatsoever, but the path of that small decline does. From Monday to...
Jan 30, 2024We got the latest report on economic growth last week and it surprised most everyone. Real GDP expanded by an annualized 3.3% in the fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate...
Jan 17, 2024It's an election year and you know what that means. Yes, every four years we gather as a nation, a democratic nation, to decide which of the two candidates for President available to...
Jan 9, 2024I'm back! I took most of the month of December off, as I do every year, to do some thinking. Per the title of this essay, the purpose of these year-end musings is to gain some...