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Oct 26, 2021
Markets Agree With Fed That the Inflation Is Transitory
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial stock averages made new all time highs last week as bonds sold off, the 10 year Treasury note yield briefly breaking above 1.7% before a pretty...
Oct 19, 2021
The Inflation Perception Is Far From Reality
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities Some see the cup as half empty. Some see the cup as half full. I see the cup as too...
Oct 12, 2021
Monetary Policy Is Not the Source of Today's Inflation
Bonds sold off again last week with the yield on the 10-year Treasury closing over 1.6% for the first time since early June. The yield is now down just 16 basis points from the high...
Oct 5, 2021
It's a Lower Return Mistake to Check Your Stocks Each Day
How often do you check your brokerage account? There is a famous economics paper from 1997, written by some of the giants in behavioral finance (Thaler, Kahnemann, Tversky &...
Sep 28, 2021
A Search for 2008 In Evergrande Is Fruitless
US stocks sold off last Monday due to fears over the potential - likely - failure of China Evergrande, a real estate developer that has suddenly discovered the perils of leverage....
Sep 21, 2021
We Are Nearing Peak Exuberance In Stocks
The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to say that it is talking about maybe reducing bond purchases sometime later this year or maybe next year or at least, someday. Jerome...
Sep 14, 2021
Investors May Not Have All Their Oars In Water
The wise man is one who knows what he does not know. Lao Tzu or Socrates or neither It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't...
Sep 8, 2021
Routinely Inaccurate August Jobless Report Offers Optimism
The economic slowdown we've been writing about for months officially arrived last Friday in the form of a particularly weak employment report. The number of new jobs created last...
Aug 31, 2021
Jerome Powell Is An Attorney. He Proved It on Friday.
Jerome Powell delivered his long anticipated speech at Jackson Hole last week. Well actually, I have no idea if he was actually in Jackson Hole since the speech was delivered...
Aug 17, 2021
50 Years Later, We're Still Adjusting to Nixon's Decision
Today is the 50th anniversary of the "Nixon shock", the day President Richard Nixon closed the gold window and ended the post-WWII Bretton Woods currency agreement. That agreement,...
Aug 10, 2021
There's Really No Such Thing As a New Normal
Remember "The New Normal"? Back in 2009, Bill Gross, the old bond king before Gundlach came along, penned a market commentary called "On the Course to a New Normal" which he said...
Aug 4, 2021
Worriers are 'Panicking In' to the Market Now
They're out there panicking right now. I can feel it. They're out there. They're panicking. Look at them. - Eddie Murphy as Billy Ray Valentine in Trading Places I thought of that...
Jul 27, 2021
Buy the Stock Market Dip? It's Not That Easy
If you were waiting for a correction in stock prices to put some money to work, you got your chance last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly 1000 points at the low...
Jul 20, 2021
Waiting and Doing Nothing: Investing's Biggest Challenge
Is there anyone left out there who doesn't know the rate of economic growth is slowing? The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 45 basis points since peaking in mid-March. 10-year TIPS...
Jul 13, 2021
No Recession, But Boom Predictions Silly Too
Until last week you hadn't heard much about the bond market rally. I told you we were probably near a rally way back in early April when the 10 year was yielding around 1.7%. And I...
Jul 7, 2021
A Booming, But Contradictory Econ. Recovery
Six months ago, the US was still reporting 226K new cases of COVID a day, a rate that would peak in the first half of January at over 300k. Daily deaths also peaked in those first...
Jun 29, 2021
As Investors, We Can't See Present Through Clear Eyes
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. George Orwell, 1984 I have said many times and believe deeply that our job as...
Jun 22, 2021
Use Emily Litella Clips to Relieve You of Fed Obsession
I thought of Gilda Radner this past week. Actually I thought of a character she created on the original Saturday Night Live, Emily Litella, who was a regular on the Weekend Update...
Jun 15, 2021
High 'Quits Rate' In Labor Market Is Our Focus
I told you last week that there were strange things going on in the labor market but I had no idea how much of an understatement that really was. Much of last week's economic focus...
Jun 8, 2021
Just Don't Do Something Now, Stand There
We got another disappointing employment report last week. Well, that's what everyone said anyway, that the complete WAG by the BLS that the US economy added 559,000 jobs in May was...
Jun 2, 2021
The Markets Don't Mirror Pundit Inflation Fears
The US economy is still stuck in the stall its been in since early spring. Sometime in mid-March everything just seems to have gone into suspended animation. Interest rates and the...
May 25, 2021
Crypto: A Distraction About Which No One Knows Conclusion
It was hard not to hear about cryptocurrencies last week what with the bear market and all. Actually, you can make the case that bitcoin has had two bear markets since mid-April....
May 18, 2021
Market Signals Reject the Inflation Alarmism
It was all over the news last week. Inflation has arrived. The CPI was hotter than expected. The PPI was even hotter. Import prices were up and export prices were up more. It was...
May 11, 2021
We've Reached Point of Absurdity In Crypto
We have reached the point of absurdity in the crypto markets. There were people buying Dogecoin last week in anticipation of Elon Musk's appearance on Saturday Night Live, with the...
May 4, 2021
Have We Reached Peak Market Speculation?
Last week I was contacted by two clients seeking information about cryptocurrencies. One was my godson, 12 years old and just getting started in investing. So far, he's bought...
Apr 27, 2021
Thing Look Much Better, But It's a Low Bar
April 15th was the two week anniversary of the day my wife and I got our second Moderna shot. We have spent the last 13 months being very careful about the virus, limiting our...
Apr 20, 2021
A Lack of Tom Brady's Makes Markets Hard to Predict
One of the most common complaints I hear about the markets is that they are "divorced from reality", that they aren't acting as the current economic data would seem to dictate. I've...
Apr 13, 2021
With Investing, Doing Less Is Certainly More
The answer to the question, "What should I do to my portfolio today (this week, this month)? is almost always nothing. Humans, and especially portfolio managers, have a hard time...
Apr 6, 2021
The Market's Already Priced What You Know
There's an old saying on Wall Street that one should "buy the rumor, sell the news", a pithy way to express the efficient market theorem. By the time an event arrives, whatever it...
Mar 30, 2021
Sometimes It's Safe to Say Bulls AND Bears Are Right
It is said that there are two types of people in this world. Those who see the glass as half full and those who see it as half empty. On Wall Street we call them bulls and bears. A...
Mar 23, 2021
Lots of Emotion About a Lot of Nothing From the Fed
The SLR exemption is ending! The SLR exemption is ending! Doesn't exactly roll off the tongue, does it? There has been rampant speculation the last few weeks about the fate of the...
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