Sep 21, 2020
Thoughts On Retail Sales and Industrial Production
Contrary to what headlines portray, we don't think these data reflect a teetering economic recovery.
Sep 18, 2020
Don't Presume 'Forward Guidance' Guides the Fed
That seemingly clear and obvious "forward guidance?" It still doesn't foretell Fed policy.
Sep 17, 2020
A More Optimistic Assessment of Dollar's Wobbles
Two charts help put the dollar's recent moves in perspective.
Sep 15, 2020
Headlines Overstate Impact of Political Parties on Markets
Headlines make hyperbolic claims about both parties' potential market impact, but the reality is likely to be far more benign.
Sep 14, 2020
August Jobs Data Look Like a Recession Aftermath
As more temporarily unemployed people return to work, the latest jobs data look like a typical recession aftermath.
Sep 10, 2020
What Seasonal Adjustments Do and Don't Tell Us
What investors can take away from the Department of Labor's recent seasonal adjustment update.
Sep 8, 2020
Stocks' September Seasonal Slide Is Wholly Sensationalized
Seasonal patterns still don't predict returns.
Sep 7, 2020
After Shortest Bear Ever, How Long Can Bulls Run?
A bear market's length doesn't predict how far the next bull market will run.
Sep 4, 2020
It's Premature to Make Too Much Out of Yesterday
Reacting to Thursday's volatility and value leadership seems quite hasty to us.
Sep 1, 2020
Economic Numbers Are Wrecking Pessimistic Narratives
Citigroup's US Economic Surprise Index illustrates how wide the gap between expectations and reality has been lately.
Aug 31, 2020
There's Nothing Much to the Fed's Alleged 'New' Policy Pivot
The Fed's new inflation targeting approach is less than meets the eye.
Aug 28, 2020
Why High Debt Doesn't Imperil Economic Growth
Debt levels are rising in the US and UKâ?"but trouble doesn't necessarily loom.
Aug 27, 2020
Making Sense of Calls for Eurozone Outperformance
We think investors benefit from owning eurozone stocks for diversification purposes, but the region's value bias argues against outperformance over the foreseeable future, in our...
Aug 26, 2020
Investors Shouldn't Try to Pick Winners In C-19 Vaccine Race
Why we don't think investors should try to pick winners in the race to develop COVID vaccines.
Aug 25, 2020
Making Sense of Prices in These COVID-19 Times
Are COVID-impacted prices reason for investors to worry?
Aug 24, 2020
Jobless Claims' Uptick Isn't a Recovery Red Flag
New bull markets generally don't need a strong job market to thrive.
Aug 19, 2020
Don't Thank the Fed for Stocks At An All-Time High
Stocks' rally isn't Fed-fueled, in our view, and it doesn't need a catalyst to continue.
Aug 17, 2020
Don't Let Corporate Insider Sales Lead You Astray
Company insiders selling their holdings as stocks near breakeven doesn't mean you should, too.
Aug 15, 2020
Explaining UK's Worst-in-the-World Q2 Contraction
Monthly figures offer a more nuanced view.
Aug 14, 2020
The Forward Meaning of Record Highs for Investors
With the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high including dividends and global stocks not far behind, what should investors make of markets' fast recovery?
Aug 11, 2020
Payroll Tax Actions Are Not a Likely Market Event
The White House's latest probably isn't a seismic shift for stocks or Social Security.
Aug 10, 2020
Do Not Presume Clout or Competence From the Fed
Widening the Fed's mandate probably widens the potential for error, in our view.
Aug 10, 2020
Stocks Are Very Unlikely to Fixate On Jobs Reports
It doesn't seem realistic to us to expect a swift, straight-line employment recovery to February's levels, but that shouldn't sway your outlook for stocks.
Aug 4, 2020
Coal's Continued Decline Defies Political Narratives
While many see political policies as responsible for coal's decline in America (for better or worse), reality shows this is a lot more about basic economics.
Aug 3, 2020
Putting the Dollar's Recent Slide in Proper Context
The dollar's last couple of months aren't all that extraordinary once you put them in context.
Jul 31, 2020
Q2 GDPs Were Historically Awful, but Not Surprise
US and German results didn't catch stocks off guard.
Jul 24, 2020
When It Comes To Banks, Bigger Doesn't Mean Bad
Q2 2020 megabank earnings reiterate a crisis-era lesson too few notice.
Jul 23, 2020
Oh Please, Stocks' Future Path Not Dependent on Cares 'Cliffs'
Stocks' future path doesn't depend on extending various CARES Act benefits, in our view.
Jul 22, 2020
Unpacking the EU's New COVID Fiscal Response
Markets likely aren't hung up on whether the new assistance amounts to too little, too late.
Jul 20, 2020
Gold Climbs, But Still Isn't a Good LT Investment
Despite nearing record highs set nine years ago, gold still isn't a good choice for the huge majority of investors, in our view.
Jul 18, 2020
How Campaign Pledges Help Elex Uncertainty Fall
Campaign pledges help markets set expectations, but they aren't set in stone and don't drive returns.
Jul 15, 2020
The UK's Limited Reopening Limited May GDP
Despite missing expectations, May's modest UK GDP growth seems consistent with that month's very limited reopening.
Jul 13, 2020
What To Do If You Exited Stocks During the Bear?
Pundits are right that it can be hard to get back in after volatility spooks you out of stocks. But their counsel misses some essential points.
Jul 8, 2020
The Hunt for a Pandemic Repeat Is Already Starting
Investors' fighting the last war is normal in a new bull market.
Jul 7, 2020
A Retrospective on a Record-Book Rocky First Half
Lessons from one of the most volatile six-month stretches in history.
Jul 6, 2020
Don't Base Investment Decisions on Lockdown Speculations
The virus alone isn't the key to market impactâ?"it is how politicians respond, and that can't be forecast.
Jul 2, 2020
The Investments Wall Street Likes to Hawk In Stressful Times
A review of investments Wall Street likes to hawk in rocky times.
Jul 1, 2020
With Q2 Data Coming Soon, Expect Awful
Analysts have expected dismal Q2 data for months.
Jun 25, 2020
High Unemployment and 'Scarring' Won't Stop the Recovery
Unprecedented joblessness is an after-effect of economic damage, not a prelude for more.
Jun 24, 2020
Our Perspective on CLO Scare: Another '08 Unlikely
A 2008 repeat is highly unlikely.
Jun 22, 2020
What Happened to the Stock Buyback Explanation?
What stocks' rebound amid record-low buybacks means for investors.
Jun 20, 2020
Correcting the Whiny, 'Negative For Year' Skeptics
The vast majority of US stocks have risen since March 23.
Jun 17, 2020
More May Data Hint a Recovery May Be Underway
In which we explain the nascent recovery in retail sales and industrial production.
Jun 15, 2020
Investors Should Stay Cool Amid 2nd-Wave Worries
No recovery is a straight line upâ?"for stocks or society's fight against COVID-19.
Jun 12, 2020
The Source of Europe's Recent Green Shoots
Economic reopeningsâ?"not policymakers' spending plansâ?"matter more to stocks, in our view.
Jun 11, 2020
A Rational Disconnect Between Stocks & Economy
It is normal for stocks and economic data to deviate as a new cycle begins.
Jun 10, 2020
'Breakevenitis' Could Put Your Goals Out of Reach
The stock market is near breakeven for the year, tempting investors to the sidelines, but don't let it steer you adrift.
Jun 9, 2020
Some Observations On a Few Recent Data Oddities
Lessons for investors in US business surveys, Australia's defunct expansion and surging consumer saving.
Jun 8, 2020
Scope of Jobs Shock Speaks to Built Up Negativity
A widely unexpected boom in hiring doesn't mean much for stocks itself, but it does illustrate the gap between sentiment and reality.
Jun 5, 2020
How We Think Investors Should Consider 'Coulds'
Always remember markets move most on probabilities, not possibilities.
Jun 3, 2020
Fear Not, Markets Never Retreat Based on 'Mean Reversion'
Markets are never "due" to behave in a certain manner based on averages, in our view.
May 28, 2020
Implications of Fed Interventions Are Not Yet Clear
The long-term implications of the Fed's extraordinary interventions won't be clear for quite some time.
May 27, 2020
Will the European Union Bond Over Coronabonds?
For the first time ever, German Chancellor Angela Merkel blesses joint EU bond issuance.
May 21, 2020
Flagging Consumer Spending Won't Stunt Growth
Why we don't think moribund consumer spending is likely to forestall recovery after economies reopen.
May 20, 2020
A Look at Developed World's Reopening Progress
A look at the developed world's reopening progress outside the US.
May 20, 2020
What China's April Data May Show Global Investors
While the specifics will vary from nation to nation, China's April data help set expectations for what awaits reopening economies.
May 18, 2020
Much Too Much Ado About Negative Interest Rates
Delving into a counterproductive but mostly inconsequential monetary policy.
May 12, 2020
Expect to See More Commentary About Market 'Detachment'
Our thoughts on a novel way some news coverage has displayed unemployment.
May 11, 2020
What Pessimism about Recovery Means for Stocks
Weakening economic expectations lowers the bar for reality to clear.
May 9, 2020
April's Astounding Jobs Report Confirms What We All Expected
The jobs data are awful, but they don't change much for stocks.
May 8, 2020
C-19 Highlights the Perils of Dividend Reliance for Cash Flow
Companies' responses to COVID-19 provide another investing reminder: Dividends aren't assured.
May 7, 2020
Strong Stretch For Bonds Doesn't Alter Superiority of Stocks
While stocks' trailing bonds over long stretches is unusual, it isn't unprecedented?or a sign stocks can't meet investors' long-term growth needs anymore.
May 6, 2020
Why Falling Prices Don't Mean Falling Stocks Next
Deflation isn't the next shoe to drop, in our view.
Apr 30, 2020
Q1 GDP Is Really Just An Educated Guesstimate
As the BEA stressed, Q1 GDP is mostly an educated guesstimate of COVID-19's impact, not an airtight calculation.
Apr 29, 2020
What Would a "2nd Covid Wave" Mean to Markets?
It depends on how reality squares with expectations.
Apr 28, 2020
Trends Indicate the Bear Market Is More Correction
Leadership trends suggest this bear market is acting more like a correction.
Apr 25, 2020
Despite Record Levels of Spending, No Debt Doom
Despite record spending to battle coronavirus containment's fallout, we don't think debt doom awaits.
Apr 23, 2020
Ignore Pundits, Sell in May Still Isn't Sound Strategy
"Sell in May and go away" isn't any more sage this year.
Apr 22, 2020
Don't Expect P/Es to Signal the Stock Market's Low
We agree it is way too early to declare the bear market over, but P/Es aren't the reason why.
Apr 21, 2020
Contrasting U.S. and European 'Reopening' Plans
Different paths to easing business restrictions highlight a subtle shift in a key question for investors.
Apr 20, 2020
Tips on Protecting Yourself from Coronavirus Ne'er-Do-Wells
Here are some tips on protecting yourself from bad actors exploiting COVID-19 fears.
Apr 18, 2020
Why Investors Shouldn't Chase 'Corona Winners'
Make sure the reason you own a stock is sufficiently forward looking.
Apr 16, 2020
Stocks Have Priced Some Major Damage, Now Look Ahead
Mainstream data reports covering the social distancing era are still scant, but some niche, industry-specific indicators provide a handy real-time read.
Apr 15, 2020
The New OPEC Deal Not As Expansive As It Seems
A record-high output cut doesn't look likely to materially move the needle, in our view.
Apr 10, 2020
Earlier Than Expected Political Clarity Is Good for Stocks
With Joe Biden seemingly locking down the Democratic nomination, markets get an earlier-than-expected dose of political clarity.
Apr 8, 2020
Contrary to Popular Belief, Stock Buybacks Don't Drive Returns
Stock buybacks don't drive returns, contrary to popular belief.
Apr 6, 2020
Bad Jobs Numbers Tell You Little About Where Stocks Headed
With weaker labor data likely to come, remember jobs numbers lag both economic growth and stocks.
Apr 3, 2020
Some Basic Tips to Keep Would-Be 'Madoffs' at Bay
Big volatility could be sowing the seeds of the next big Ponzi. Here are some tips to protect yourself.
Apr 2, 2020
Separate Your Stock Market Views from Virus News
Contrary to the apparent popular belief, stocks don't move in lockstep with economic and medical data.
Apr 1, 2020
From Lows to Highs: Stock Market Recovery Times
Stock market history can help frame your expectations.
Mar 30, 2020
Around the World in Coronavirus Stimulus
The US isn't the only country loosening its purse strings to combat COVID-19 economic fallout.
Mar 27, 2020
Putting Historic Jobless Claims Into Perspective
The bear market anticipated economic conditions' rapid deterioration.
Mar 26, 2020
No Timing a Bear So Exercise Patience, Endurance & Faith
Preliminary March PMIs start showing what stocks already saw.
Mar 24, 2020
Meanwhile, Back at Fed ...You Don't Need Perfect for Recovery
Another week, another mixed bag of extraordinary Fed actions.
Mar 20, 2020
Newly Expressed Fears Shouldn't Make You More Anxious
As a bear market wears on, it is normal for fear to spread far beyond the downturn's proximate cause.
Mar 19, 2020
Stimulus Won't Unleash a Bull, But May Give It Oomph
Governments are about to unleash big sums of money. What it can?and can't?accomplish.
Mar 17, 2020
Good or Bad, the Fed's Actions Seemed to Spook Investors
Sunday's "emergency" action seemingly scared investors.
Mar 16, 2020
Vital Investor Asset Right Now: A Lack of Emotion
Resist the temptation to read into the big ups and downs.
Mar 12, 2020
Relax: If You're Long-Term, This Isn't Time to Cave
As the Dow Jones Industrial Average enters bear market territory?and the S&P 500 flirts with it?it is worth remembering the name given to a pullback doesn't determine returns from...
Mar 10, 2020
We Think This Feels Like a Correction, Not a Bear
Days like Monday call for calm consideration, in our view.
Mar 6, 2020
Wisdom of John Templeton Is Likely to Shine Again
The disease may be novel, but markets' reaction doesn't seem to be.
Mar 5, 2020
What the Fed's Big Rate Cut Does and Does Not Do
At MarketMinder, stay in tune with what's happening in the markets with unique perspectives on essential financial issues from Fisher Investments.
Feb 28, 2020
As Correction Becomes Official, Beware Worst-Drop Lists
Tune down trivial rankings.
Feb 26, 2020
Don't Go For All the Alarmism About the Yield Curve
Another inversion, another look at banks' interest rates.
Feb 25, 2020
Brexit Certainty Logically Brings About a Post-Brexit Bounce
Feb 25, 2020
Coronavirus Is Highly Unlikely to Upend This Bull Market,
Monday's volatility isn't a call to action, in our view.
Feb 24, 2020
Coronavirus Worries Well Overdone, and Are Part of a Pattern
We aren't even two months into 2020, yet many pundits believe the Wuhan coronavirus will make the global expansion gravely ill. Some have already started slashing market forecasts...
Feb 19, 2020
With Japan, Focus On Big Picture, Not Data Wiggles
Feb 17, 2020
Baltic Dry Index and Other Transport Indicators Are Unworthy
Various freight and transport indicators have some worried the stock market's current rally is built on sand. The Baltic Dry Index, a gauge of shipping costs, is tanking. The Dow...
Feb 10, 2020
The Iowa Debacle's Timeless Lesson for Investors
Three days after Iowans caucused for their Democratic presidential candidates of choice, we still don't know the results. A preliminary tally shows former South Bend Mayor Pete...
Feb 6, 2020
Is a Eulogy Necessary for the S&P 500's 'Earnings Recession'?
US stocks' huge 31.5% rise in 2019 came amid a much-maligned stretch for earnings, which contracted in the year's first three quarters.[i] Tuesday, data showed the S&P 500's...
Feb 3, 2020
As January Ends, the Global Economy Still Looks Healthy
Feb 3, 2020
It's a Mistake to View Valuation Measures as Forecasting Tools
2019's great market returns came despite modestly negative corporate earnings. Hence, stock valuations rose—too far, some fear. In our view, these worries exaggerate how far...
Jan 30, 2020
The Potential Market Impact of New Bank Accounting Rules
Jan 27, 2020
Questions Investors Should Ask Amid Stock-Market Placidity
While last year's fund outflows and sour sentiment surveys suggest many investors may have missed it, stocks had just the kind of 2019 most investors would love. Not only was the...
Jan 22, 2020
What Pandemic History Says About the Wuhan Virus, Stocks
The Wuhan coronavirus has officially hit the US, extending the deadly outbreak that started in China and has since spread to Taiwan, Korea, Japan and Thailand on the eve of the Lunar...
Jan 21, 2020
Why Shale Oil's Boom Didn't Buoy Energy Stocks
The US shale oil boom has been one of the big economic stories of the past decade, reversing what many thought was an inexorable decline and transforming America into the world's...
Jan 20, 2020
Oddities of Treasury's Official Currency Manipulator Watchlist
Jan 16, 2020
So Much For Runaway Inflation In United Kingdom
Jan 13, 2020
Sentiment Indicating a Stock-Market Peak Seems a Ways Off
A year ago, markets were just a couple weeks removed from stocks' second-worst December on record. Uncertainty reigned. Investor sentiment was down in the dumps, with many fearing a...
Jan 10, 2020
Why Spain's Radical New Coalition Should Buoy the Markets
326 days. That is how long it has been since Spain's last government collapsed. Two elections and a lot of horse trading later, they finally have a new one: a minority coalition...
Jan 9, 2020
Addressing the Investment Implications of U.S./Iran Tensions
After US drone strikes at a Baghdad airport Friday killed the general in charge of Iran's elite forces, speculation is swirling over whether the situation will escalate. In response,...
Jan 3, 2020
The Repo Market's Wild New Year's Eve Was a Dud
In markets, widely watched and well-known events routinely underwhelm. On this final day of 2019, the repurchase agreement (repo) market taught this lesson once again … by...
Jan 2, 2020
The Big 2019 Was Hardly All About Rate Cuts and Tariff Truce
Today is New Year's Eve, and barring a late-day collapse, the S&P 500 is on course to top 30% for the year and log its best calendar-year return since 2013. The MSCI World Index,...
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