Market Minder

Contrary to what headlines portray, we don't think these data reflect a teetering economic recovery.

That seemingly clear and obvious "forward guidance?" It still doesn't foretell Fed policy.

Two charts help put the dollar's recent moves in perspective.

Headlines make hyperbolic claims about both parties' potential market impact, but the reality is likely to be far more benign.

As more temporarily unemployed people return to work, the latest jobs data look like a typical recession aftermath.

What investors can take away from the Department of Labor's recent seasonal adjustment update.

Seasonal patterns still don't predict returns.

A bear market's length doesn't predict how far the next bull market will run.

Reacting to Thursday's volatility and value leadership seems quite hasty to us.

Citigroup's US Economic Surprise Index illustrates how wide the gap between expectations and reality has been lately.

The Fed's new inflation targeting approach is less than meets the eye.

Debt levels are rising in the US and UKâ?"but trouble doesn't necessarily loom.

We think investors benefit from owning eurozone stocks for diversification purposes, but the region's value bias argues against outperformance over the foreseeable future, in our...

Why we don't think investors should try to pick winners in the race to develop COVID vaccines.

Are COVID-impacted prices reason for investors to worry?

New bull markets generally don't need a strong job market to thrive.

Stocks' rally isn't Fed-fueled, in our view, and it doesn't need a catalyst to continue.

Company insiders selling their holdings as stocks near breakeven doesn't mean you should, too.

Monthly figures offer a more nuanced view.

With the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high including dividends and global stocks not far behind, what should investors make of markets' fast recovery?

The White House's latest probably isn't a seismic shift for stocks or Social Security.

Widening the Fed's mandate probably widens the potential for error, in our view.

It doesn't seem realistic to us to expect a swift, straight-line employment recovery to February's levels, but that shouldn't sway your outlook for stocks.

While many see political policies as responsible for coal's decline in America (for better or worse), reality shows this is a lot more about basic economics.

The dollar's last couple of months aren't all that extraordinary once you put them in context.

US and German results didn't catch stocks off guard.

Q2 2020 megabank earnings reiterate a crisis-era lesson too few notice.

Stocks' future path doesn't depend on extending various CARES Act benefits, in our view.

Markets likely aren't hung up on whether the new assistance amounts to too little, too late.

Despite nearing record highs set nine years ago, gold still isn't a good choice for the huge majority of investors, in our view.

Campaign pledges help markets set expectations, but they aren't set in stone and don't drive returns.

Despite missing expectations, May's modest UK GDP growth seems consistent with that month's very limited reopening.

Pundits are right that it can be hard to get back in after volatility spooks you out of stocks. But their counsel misses some essential points.

Investors' fighting the last war is normal in a new bull market.

Lessons from one of the most volatile six-month stretches in history.

The virus alone isn't the key to market impactâ?"it is how politicians respond, and that can't be forecast.

A review of investments Wall Street likes to hawk in rocky times.

Analysts have expected dismal Q2 data for months.

Unprecedented joblessness is an after-effect of economic damage, not a prelude for more.

A 2008 repeat is highly unlikely.

What stocks' rebound amid record-low buybacks means for investors.

The vast majority of US stocks have risen since March 23.

In which we explain the nascent recovery in retail sales and industrial production.

No recovery is a straight line upâ?"for stocks or society's fight against COVID-19.

Economic reopeningsâ?"not policymakers' spending plansâ?"matter more to stocks, in our view.

It is normal for stocks and economic data to deviate as a new cycle begins.

The stock market is near breakeven for the year, tempting investors to the sidelines, but don't let it steer you adrift.

Lessons for investors in US business surveys, Australia's defunct expansion and surging consumer saving.

A widely unexpected boom in hiring doesn't mean much for stocks itself, but it does illustrate the gap between sentiment and reality.

Always remember markets move most on probabilities, not possibilities.

Markets are never "due" to behave in a certain manner based on averages, in our view.

The long-term implications of the Fed's extraordinary interventions won't be clear for quite some time.

For the first time ever, German Chancellor Angela Merkel blesses joint EU bond issuance.

Why we don't think moribund consumer spending is likely to forestall recovery after economies reopen.

A look at the developed world's reopening progress outside the US.

While the specifics will vary from nation to nation, China's April data help set expectations for what awaits reopening economies.

Delving into a counterproductive but mostly inconsequential monetary policy.

Our thoughts on a novel way some news coverage has displayed unemployment.

Weakening economic expectations lowers the bar for reality to clear.

The jobs data are awful, but they don't change much for stocks.

Companies' responses to COVID-19 provide another investing reminder: Dividends aren't assured.

While stocks' trailing bonds over long stretches is unusual, it isn't unprecedented?or a sign stocks can't meet investors' long-term growth needs anymore.

Deflation isn't the next shoe to drop, in our view.

As the BEA stressed, Q1 GDP is mostly an educated guesstimate of COVID-19's impact, not an airtight calculation.

It depends on how reality squares with expectations.

Leadership trends suggest this bear market is acting more like a correction.

Despite record spending to battle coronavirus containment's fallout, we don't think debt doom awaits.

"Sell in May and go away" isn't any more sage this year.

We agree it is way too early to declare the bear market over, but P/Es aren't the reason why.

Different paths to easing business restrictions highlight a subtle shift in a key question for investors.

Here are some tips on protecting yourself from bad actors exploiting COVID-19 fears.

Make sure the reason you own a stock is sufficiently forward looking.

Mainstream data reports covering the social distancing era are still scant, but some niche, industry-specific indicators provide a handy real-time read.

A record-high output cut doesn't look likely to materially move the needle, in our view.

With Joe Biden seemingly locking down the Democratic nomination, markets get an earlier-than-expected dose of political clarity.

Stock buybacks don't drive returns, contrary to popular belief.

With weaker labor data likely to come, remember jobs numbers lag both economic growth and stocks.

Big volatility could be sowing the seeds of the next big Ponzi. Here are some tips to protect yourself.

Contrary to the apparent popular belief, stocks don't move in lockstep with economic and medical data.

Stock market history can help frame your expectations.

The US isn't the only country loosening its purse strings to combat COVID-19 economic fallout.

The bear market anticipated economic conditions' rapid deterioration.

Preliminary March PMIs start showing what stocks already saw.

Another week, another mixed bag of extraordinary Fed actions.

As a bear market wears on, it is normal for fear to spread far beyond the downturn's proximate cause.

Governments are about to unleash big sums of money. What it can?and can't?accomplish.

Sunday's "emergency" action seemingly scared investors.

Resist the temptation to read into the big ups and downs.

As the Dow Jones Industrial Average enters bear market territory?and the S&P 500 flirts with it?it is worth remembering the name given to a pullback doesn't determine returns from...

Days like Monday call for calm consideration, in our view.

The disease may be novel, but markets' reaction doesn't seem to be.

At MarketMinder, stay in tune with what's happening in the markets with unique perspectives on essential financial issues from Fisher Investments.

Tune down trivial rankings.

Another inversion, another look at banks' interest rates.

Monday's volatility isn't a call to action, in our view.

We aren't even two months into 2020, yet many pundits believe the Wuhan coronavirus will make the global expansion gravely ill. Some have already started slashing market forecasts...

Various freight and transport indicators have some worried the stock market's current rally is built on sand. The Baltic Dry Index, a gauge of shipping costs, is tanking. The Dow...

Three days after Iowans caucused for their Democratic presidential candidates of choice, we still don't know the results. A preliminary tally shows former South Bend Mayor Pete...

US stocks' huge 31.5% rise in 2019 came amid a much-maligned stretch for earnings, which contracted in the year's first three quarters.[i] Tuesday, data showed the S&P 500's...

2019's great market returns came despite modestly negative corporate earnings. Hence, stock valuations rose—too far, some fear. In our view, these worries exaggerate how far...

While last year's fund outflows and sour sentiment surveys suggest many investors may have missed it, stocks had just the kind of 2019 most investors would love. Not only was the...

The Wuhan coronavirus has officially hit the US, extending the deadly outbreak that started in China and has since spread to Taiwan, Korea, Japan and Thailand on the eve of the Lunar...

The US shale oil boom has been one of the big economic stories of the past decade, reversing what many thought was an inexorable decline and transforming America into the world's...

A year ago, markets were just a couple weeks removed from stocks' second-worst December on record. Uncertainty reigned. Investor sentiment was down in the dumps, with many fearing a...

326 days. That is how long it has been since Spain's last government collapsed. Two elections and a lot of horse trading later, they finally have a new one: a minority coalition...

After US drone strikes at a Baghdad airport Friday killed the general in charge of Iran's elite forces, speculation is swirling over whether the situation will escalate. In response,...

In markets, widely watched and well-known events routinely underwhelm. On this final day of 2019, the repurchase agreement (repo) market taught this lesson once again … by...

Today is New Year's Eve, and barring a late-day collapse, the S&P 500 is on course to top 30% for the year and log its best calendar-year return since 2013. The MSCI World Index,...