Menzie Chinn

Oct 26, 2023

Does the Confidence Index Say We’re in a Recession?

Nope
Sep 26, 2023

50 Years of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

It seems a lot less uncertain since 2021.
Mar 22, 2023

What Interest Rate Would Eliminate Bank Bond Losses?

Lower rates solve the banking problem but how much would they have to fall?
Feb 3, 2023

Yield Curves Inverted All Over The World

Recession probability is high.