Author Archive
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Feb 27, 2026Economic research institutions have identified sectors and occupations that are likely to be vulnerable to AI. -
Feb 23, 2026Individual sectors of the economy can be in distress while the rest remain fine. -
Feb 20, 2026The private sector in the US is in really good shape. -
Feb 17, 2026AI is everywhere except in the incoming economic data. -
Feb 13, 2026The incoming data has surprised significantly to the upside in recent weeks, but long rates have not moved higher. -
Feb 11, 2026Much to the frustration of the quant community, when the Fed started raising interest rates in 2022, the strong correlation between gold and real rates broke down. -
Feb 10, 2026S&P 500 companies only make up a very small part of the US economy. -
Feb 9, 2026The problems in software will not become a macro problem because the underlying US economy is about to take off. -
Jan 28, 202610 conclusions from a review of the Treasury market. -
Jan 21, 2026Stock prices of companies with negative earnings continue to outperform stock prices of companies with positive earnings. -
Jan 20, 2026US oil production has increased dramatically over the past 15 years (see the first chart), and most of the rise has been exported. -
Jan 16, 2026Durable goods data shows that there is a capex boom underway in the US economy. -
Jan 15, 2026In 2025, we worried that the trade war and immigration restrictions would lead to stagflation. -
Jan 8, 2026The IMF estimates that fiscal policy will boost growth by 1% in Germany and 0.5% in Japan in 2026. -
Jan 7, 2026Data for bank lending points to a gradual recovery in the US and Europe.
