Author Archive
-
Apr 25, 2025The US economy has been the envy of the world for decades—the biggest economy in the world with strong economic... -
Apr 15, 2025The 60/40 portfolio has basically gone nowhere since the beginning of 2022, with only a 2% annual return. -
Apr 11, 2025Foreigners own $19 trillion in US equities, $7 trillion in Treasuries, and $5 trillion in US credit, see chart below.... -
Apr 7, 2025The downside risks to the economy are intensifying -
Mar 27, 2025When FOMC members are asked about the risks to their outlooks, they respond that they are worried about upside risks... -
Mar 26, 2025Less immigration means fewer jobs created. -
Mar 21, 2025There have been significant inflows from abroad into US equity markets. If they leave, the downside is significant. -
Mar 19, 2025The gains from free trade haven't been shared evenly. -
Mar 14, 2025What characterizes a wait-and-see economy is that consumers and firms are more cautious about spending decisions. -
Mar 12, 2025What are the incentives for the rest of the world to sign a Mar-a-Lago Accord? -
Mar 6, 2025There are adjustment costs associated with changing trade policy and changing the size of the government sector. -
Mar 3, 2025The probability of recession in the next 12 months has ticked up recently. -
Feb 26, 2025There is a long list of forces pushing inflation higher. -
Feb 24, 2025Rates higher for longer continues to be a headwind to the outlook for CRE. -
Feb 19, 2025The outlook for Spain continues to improve, and the outlook for Germany continues to deteriorate... -
Feb 14, 2025Inflation is moving higher, inflation expectations are moving higher, and breakevens are moving higher. -
Feb 13, 2025The share of equity trading volume on the exchanges is now smaller than the share of equity trading volume in. -
Feb 10, 2025There are 11,500 people who turn 65 years old every day in the US. In China, it is 32,000. -
Feb 7, 2025We have put together a trade war chart book looking at US trade with China, Canada, and Mexico. -
Jan 28, 2025The share of companies planning to raise prices remains elevated and has started to trend higher. -
Jan 27, 2025Following the strong performance of 2024, credit markets are entering 2025 in a solid position. -
Jan 17, 2025Long term rates are too high based on this simple model. -
Jan 13, 2025US companies do a lot of business outside the US -
Jan 10, 2025The recent jump in ISM Prices Paid points to a coming reacceleration in both headline and core inflation. -
Jan 8, 2025The price-to-book ratio for the S&P 500 is at record-high levels -
Jan 6, 2025The impact of the Fed's 100 basis points in cuts since September. -
Jan 6, 2025The US consumer is in incredible shape.
