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Apr 23, 2024
Equity analysts continue to increase their earnings expectations for the S&P 500, see chart below. There are simply no signs...
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Apr 22, 2024
Inflation has to drop to almost nothing for the rest of the year.
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Apr 11, 2024
The consensus has been lowering the likelihood of a US recession over the next 12 months, see chart below.
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Apr 9, 2024
In 2023 it was all about the Magnificent Seven. Then it was the Fabulous Four. Now?
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Apr 3, 2024
After the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, the labor market started softening, with households saying that it was...
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Mar 20, 2024
The Fed’s inflation target is 2%, and the bottom line of the inflation discussion is that inflation has stopped falling.
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Mar 15, 2024
With no signs of a recession, commercial real estate prices are starting to recover, see chart below. This is helpful.
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Mar 13, 2024
By this measure...
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Mar 12, 2024
Household expectations to future home price appreciation are currently at the highest level since 2007.
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Mar 8, 2024
Normally, the business cycles in the US and Europe are highly correlated.
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Mar 4, 2024
The market came into 2023 expecting a recession. The market went into 2024 expecting six Fed cuts. But the economy isn't cooperating.
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Feb 27, 2024
The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than the top 10 companies were during the dot com era.
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Feb 23, 2024
US households are less and less mobile, and after the Fed started raising rates, the self-reported probability of moving residence...
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Feb 14, 2024
Earnings expectations have diverged for the S&P 7 and the S&P 493.
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Jan 26, 2024
The main argument for the Fed cutting rates in March is that the Fed’s workhorse model says that because of...
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Jan 12, 2024
There is an ongoing debate about how core PCE inflation could come down from 5.5% to 3.2% without a slowdown...
Apr 23, 2024Equity analysts continue to increase their earnings expectations for the S&P 500, see chart below. There are simply no signs...
Apr 22, 2024Inflation has to drop to almost nothing for the rest of the year.
Apr 11, 2024The consensus has been lowering the likelihood of a US recession over the next 12 months, see chart below. 
Apr 9, 2024In 2023 it was all about the Magnificent Seven. Then it was the Fabulous Four. Now?
Apr 3, 2024After the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, the labor market started softening, with households saying that it was...
Mar 20, 2024The Fed’s inflation target is 2%, and the bottom line of the inflation discussion is that inflation has stopped falling.
Mar 15, 2024With no signs of a recession, commercial real estate prices are starting to recover, see chart below. This is helpful.
Mar 13, 2024By this measure...
Mar 12, 2024Household expectations to future home price appreciation are currently at the highest level since 2007.
Mar 8, 2024Normally, the business cycles in the US and Europe are highly correlated.
Mar 4, 2024The market came into 2023 expecting a recession. The market went into 2024 expecting six Fed cuts. But the economy isn't cooperating.
Feb 23, 2024US households are less and less mobile, and after the Fed started raising rates, the self-reported probability of moving residence...
Feb 14, 2024Earnings expectations have diverged for the S&P 7 and the S&P 493.
Jan 26, 2024The main argument for the Fed cutting rates in March is that the Fed’s workhorse model says that because of...
Jan 12, 2024There is an ongoing debate about how core PCE inflation could come down from 5.5% to 3.2% without a slowdown...