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Jul 14, 2026
Net foreign inflows into US equities have surged to a record high, driven in large part by overseas investors seeking AI exposure they cannot get in their home markets.
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Jul 9, 2026
Consensus expects free cash flow for the hyperscalers to more than double over the coming years.
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Jul 7, 2026
China's home prices have now been falling for four straight years, with both new and used home prices stuck in negative territory since 2022.
-
Jul 1, 2026
So far there are no signs of profit margins rising outside the tech sector. This is ultimately what we are waiting for, because the value of AI companies today rests entirely on the...
-
Jun 29, 2026
The decade-long case for growth rested on the Mag 7 out-earning everything else, but with earnings growth converging toward the S&P 493 and their valuation premium compressing,...
-
Jun 25, 2026
The narrative in markets is changing from “lower oil prices mean lower inflation” to “lower oil prices mean more demand in an already overheating economy, which...
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Jun 24, 2026
Three biggest macro risks today.
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Jun 22, 2026
Companies with negative earnings keep outperforming companies with positive earnings
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Jun 16, 2026
Commodity prices are moving higher across the board, but for different reasons in each segment.
-
Jun 15, 2026
The Silicon Data Token Expenditure Index, which tracks total spending on large language model usage, has roughly doubled since late 2025 even as the price of a single token has...
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Jun 9, 2026
There are no signs that AI is boosting anything but the Mag 7.
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Jun 8, 2026
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly showing up as a working-capital problem for US corporates.
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Jun 2, 2026
The cost of doing a PET scan, CT scan and MRI has declined 70%, and as a result, many more of them are being carried out and radiologist pay has risen.
-
Jun 1, 2026
The chart below shows the weekly ADP employment data, and there is zero evidence of job losses because of AI.
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May 29, 2026
The chart book available here looks at the impact of AI on the economy and financial markets.
-
May 27, 2026
Chips go into virtually everything manufactured, including cars, appliances, industrial equipment and phones. Subscribe for daily updates.
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May 26, 2026
Locked-in mortgage rates are keeping homeowners in place and driving a surge in renovation spending.
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May 19, 2026
What began as an equity market phenomenon has become a capital markets-wide transformation.
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May 18, 2026
For lots of reasons rates will stay higher for longer.
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May 14, 2026
The US has never entered a recession with this little fiscal buffer.
-
May 13, 2026
Default rates are falling, distressed exchanges are declining and the number of liability management exercises are declining, see charts below. Subscribe for daily updates.
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May 11, 2026
The share of S&P 500 profits captured by the 10 largest companies has doubled since 1996.
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May 5, 2026
Cheaper booking increased the demand for humans.
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Apr 7, 2026
Our chart book (available here) looks at why gold prices have increased so much since 2022, and why they have fallen recently.
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Apr 2, 2026
The first chart below compares the unemployment rate for the entire US population with the unemployment rate for people ages...
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Mar 28, 2026
Watch what people do not what they say
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Mar 26, 2026
AI is driving returns in equity markets because of the growing size of tech in the S&P 500 index.
-
Mar 24, 2026
We are monitoring the unemployment rate in the Philippines and India for any signs that AI is reducing the need...
-
Mar 23, 2026
There are a lot of conversations in markets about the “Sell America” trade but it hasn't been happening lately.
-
Mar 20, 2026
There are no signs of a slowdown in corporate earnings expectations.
-
Mar 13, 2026
With margin debt at record highs, any downturn in stocks risks turning into a sharper correction as leveraged investors are...
-
Mar 9, 2026
The surge in new US business formation is being fueled by AI and large language models that are dramatically reducing...
-
Mar 4, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint for global oil trade, making any disruption an immediate risk to energy...
-
Mar 3, 2026
The dramatic change in recent weeks in the narrative in markets from “the economy is strong” to “we are all...
-
Feb 27, 2026
Economic research institutions have identified sectors and occupations that are likely to be vulnerable to AI.
-
Feb 23, 2026
Individual sectors of the economy can be in distress while the rest remain fine.
-
Feb 20, 2026
The private sector in the US is in really good shape.
-
Feb 17, 2026
AI is everywhere except in the incoming economic data.
-
Feb 13, 2026
The incoming data has surprised significantly to the upside in recent weeks, but long rates have not moved higher.
-
Feb 11, 2026
Much to the frustration of the quant community, when the Fed started raising interest rates in 2022, the strong correlation between gold and real rates broke down.
-
Feb 10, 2026
S&P 500 companies only make up a very small part of the US economy.
-
Feb 9, 2026
The problems in software will not become a macro problem because the underlying US economy is about to take off.
-
Jan 28, 2026
10 conclusions from a review of the Treasury market.
-
Jan 21, 2026
Stock prices of companies with negative earnings continue to outperform stock prices of companies with positive earnings.
-
Jan 20, 2026
US oil production has increased dramatically over the past 15 years (see the first chart), and most of the rise has been exported.
-
Jan 16, 2026
Durable goods data shows that there is a capex boom underway in the US economy.
-
Jan 15, 2026
In 2025, we worried that the trade war and immigration restrictions would lead to stagflation.
-
Jan 8, 2026
The IMF estimates that fiscal policy will boost growth by 1% in Germany and 0.5% in Japan in 2026.
-
Jan 7, 2026
Data for bank lending points to a gradual recovery in the US and Europe.
Jul 14, 2026Net foreign inflows into US equities have surged to a record high, driven in large part by overseas investors seeking AI exposure they cannot get in their home markets.
Jul 9, 2026Consensus expects free cash flow for the hyperscalers to more than double over the coming years.
Jul 7, 2026China's home prices have now been falling for four straight years, with both new and used home prices stuck in negative territory since 2022.
Jul 1, 2026So far there are no signs of profit margins rising outside the tech sector. This is ultimately what we are waiting for, because the value of AI companies today rests entirely on the...
Jun 29, 2026The decade-long case for growth rested on the Mag 7 out-earning everything else, but with earnings growth converging toward the S&P 493 and their valuation premium compressing,...
Jun 25, 2026The narrative in markets is changing from “lower oil prices mean lower inflation” to “lower oil prices mean more demand in an already overheating economy, which...
Jun 24, 2026Three biggest macro risks today.
Jun 22, 2026Companies with negative earnings keep outperforming companies with positive earnings
Jun 16, 2026Commodity prices are moving higher across the board, but for different reasons in each segment. 
Jun 15, 2026The Silicon Data Token Expenditure Index, which tracks total spending on large language model usage, has roughly doubled since late 2025 even as the price of a single token has...
Jun 9, 2026There are no signs that AI is boosting anything but the Mag 7.
Jun 8, 2026The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly showing up as a working-capital problem for US corporates.
Jun 2, 2026The cost of doing a PET scan, CT scan and MRI has declined 70%, and as a result, many more of them are being carried out and radiologist pay has risen.
Jun 1, 2026The chart below shows the weekly ADP employment data, and there is zero evidence of job losses because of AI. 
May 29, 2026The chart book available here looks at the impact of AI on the economy and financial markets.
May 27, 2026Chips go into virtually everything manufactured, including cars, appliances, industrial equipment and phones. Subscribe for daily updates.
May 26, 2026Locked-in mortgage rates are keeping homeowners in place and driving a surge in renovation spending.
May 18, 2026For lots of reasons rates will stay higher for longer.
May 14, 2026The US has never entered a recession with this little fiscal buffer.
May 13, 2026Default rates are falling, distressed exchanges are declining and the number of liability management exercises are declining, see charts below. Subscribe for daily updates.
May 11, 2026The share of S&P 500 profits captured by the 10 largest companies has doubled since 1996.
May 5, 2026Cheaper booking increased the demand for humans.
Apr 7, 2026Our chart book (available here) looks at why gold prices have increased so much since 2022, and why they have fallen recently.
Apr 2, 2026The first chart below compares the unemployment rate for the entire US population with the unemployment rate for people ages...
Mar 28, 2026Watch what people do not what they say
Mar 26, 2026AI is driving returns in equity markets because of the growing size of tech in the S&P 500 index.
Mar 24, 2026We are monitoring the unemployment rate in the Philippines and India for any signs that AI is reducing the need...
Mar 23, 2026There are a lot of conversations in markets about the “Sell America” trade but it hasn't been happening lately.
Mar 20, 2026There are no signs of a slowdown in corporate earnings expectations.
Mar 13, 2026With margin debt at record highs, any downturn in stocks risks turning into a sharper correction as leveraged investors are...
Mar 9, 2026The surge in new US business formation is being fueled by AI and large language models that are dramatically reducing...
Mar 4, 2026The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint for global oil trade, making any disruption an immediate risk to energy...
Mar 3, 2026The dramatic change in recent weeks in the narrative in markets from “the economy is strong” to “we are all...
Feb 27, 2026Economic research institutions have identified sectors and occupations that are likely to be vulnerable to AI.
Feb 23, 2026Individual sectors of the economy can be in distress while the rest remain fine.
Feb 20, 2026The private sector in the US is in really good shape. 
Feb 17, 2026AI is everywhere except in the incoming economic data.
Feb 13, 2026The incoming data has surprised significantly to the upside in recent weeks, but long rates have not moved higher.
Feb 11, 2026Much to the frustration of the quant community, when the Fed started raising interest rates in 2022, the strong correlation between gold and real rates broke down.
Feb 10, 2026S&P 500 companies only make up a very small part of the US economy.
Feb 9, 2026The problems in software will not become a macro problem because the underlying US economy is about to take off.
Jan 28, 202610 conclusions from a review of the Treasury market.
Jan 21, 2026Stock prices of companies with negative earnings continue to outperform stock prices of companies with positive earnings.
Jan 20, 2026US oil production has increased dramatically over the past 15 years (see the first chart), and most of the rise has been exported.
Jan 16, 2026Durable goods data shows that there is a capex boom underway in the US economy.
Jan 15, 2026In 2025, we worried that the trade war and immigration restrictions would lead to stagflation. 
Jan 8, 2026The IMF estimates that fiscal policy will boost growth by 1% in Germany and 0.5% in Japan in 2026. 
Jan 7, 2026Data for bank lending points to a gradual recovery in the US and Europe.