Author Archive
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Dec 2, 2024Costs are still nearly a quarter higher than in 2020. -
Nov 26, 2024As home prices continue to rise, more and more households are taking out HELOCs to finance consumer spending. -
Nov 22, 2024Fed cuts, tight credit spreads, and higher animal spirits will boost M&A and IPO activity over the coming quarters. -
Nov 20, 2024When the Fed was raising interest rates from March 2022 to September 2024, the amount of money in money market accounts increased $2 trillion as investors liked the higher level of... -
Nov 18, 2024A data-driven look at the US fiscal situation. -
Nov 12, 2024The economy is strong, and there are upside risks to inflation. -
Nov 11, 2024In short, the US economy remains incredibly strong. -
Nov 7, 2024Since the Fed began to raise interest rates in March 2022, the FOMC has constantly expected the economy to slow... -
Nov 4, 2024It has been 30 months since the Fed started raising interest rates, and we have still not seen any sign of a slowdown.
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Oct 31, 2024US long rates are disconnecting from Fed expectations and oil prices. -
Oct 24, 2024The chart below shows that Fed hikes have not had the desired effects on firms. -
Oct 15, 2024Stock and home prices plus higher interest income has US households in much better shape than other countries. -
Oct 9, 2024Data centers use 26% of Virginia’s total power consumption, and there is a significant need for long-term investments in energy. -
Oct 7, 2024Policymakers are biased in favor of lower unemployment. -
Oct 3, 2024In 2009, the market cap of the US stock market was 30% of the global stock market cap; today it is nearly 50%. -
Oct 2, 2024GDP growth for second quarter was 3% and GDPNow has third quarter at 3.1%. Where's the slowdown? -
Oct 1, 2024Financial conditions are easing rapidly. -
Sep 25, 2024Long-term loans to corporates are moving away from being financed by overnight deposits to instead being financed by the long-term... -
Sep 23, 2024It is inconsistent to say that the incoming economic data is strong but the labor market is weakening. -
Sep 20, 2024Since the Fed started raising rates, the terminal rate has fluctuated between 2% and 4.5%, see chart below. That’s a... -
Sep 18, 2024In our view, recent economic data—including the July and August payrolls reports—point to an economy that is slowing down but not heading into a recession. -
Sep 18, 2024Despite surveys showing that the consensus is expecting a soft landing, rates markets are pricing in a full-blown recession. -
Sep 16, 2024What if the Fed is wrong about the neutral rate? -
Sep 12, 2024The yield curve is no longer inverted, and the recession probability is declining. -
Sep 11, 2024Our latest US housing outlook is available here, and we remain constructive. -
Sep 9, 2024Response rates to surveys are falling -
Sep 6, 2024There's been no impact on countries that have adopted widespread usage of AI. -
Sep 4, 2024Demographic headwinds are significant and a major drag on growth in China. -
Sep 3, 2024Is the Fed about to make a mistake? -
Aug 29, 2024The economics textbook says that higher interest rates should slow capex spending. -
Aug 28, 2024We are digging a very, very deep hole. -
Aug 20, 2024Everything from banking to investing is changing. -
Aug 19, 2024The argument for buying distressed commercial real estate today is that interest rates are about to come down. -
Aug 14, 2024Companies aren't talking about recession.
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Aug 13, 2024Recent auctions have had wider tails -
Aug 8, 2024The Sahm rule was designed for a decline in labor demand not an increase in labor supply. -
Aug 6, 2024The CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Infrastructure Act have triggered a new industrial renaissance. -
Aug 5, 2024The soft July employment report is inconsistent with the hard data for economic activity. -
Jul 29, 2024The gap between Fed pricing and long rates continues to widen, suggesting that factors other than Fed expectations, are affecting the long end of the curve. -
Jul 25, 2024During recessions, Treasury issuance shifts to T-bills, partly because during recessions, short rates are low and T-bills are a cheap source of financing. -
Jul 24, 2024Let’s assume that the economy is finally slowing down. If it took the Fed two years to slow the economy... -
Jul 23, 2024Small caps earnings expectations are not rising. -
Jul 22, 2024There is no sign of a drop off in economic activity. -
Jul 19, 2024The market is making the same mistake it made in January when it priced in six cuts. -
Jul 16, 2024Container rates are rising. -
Jul 10, 2024In rates markets, there is a tug-of-war between a slowing economy arguing for lower rates versus the structural forces putting... -
Jul 9, 2024For the first time in more than 60 years, US energy production is now higher than US energy consumption. -
Jul 8, 2024When the Fed stops raising rates, it ultimately causes a recession within 18 months. -
Jul 2, 2024According to the UN, working-age population growth is going to shrink in Europe and Japan over the coming years. -
Jul 1, 2024S&P500: Record high bullishness on future earnings -
Jun 25, 2024There are three themes for real assets... -
Jun 21, 2024While the Fed’s rate hikes have reigned in growth, especially among over-levered consumers, corporates, and banks, the easing of financial conditions since the “Fed... -
Jun 18, 2024The native born workforce is unchanged. -
Jun 14, 2024Smaller stocks are a lot cheaper than large caps. -
Jun 12, 2024It is remarkable how vacancy rates for commercial real estate are moving sideways or higher in a strong economy. -
Jun 3, 2024There is a puzzle in financial markets at the moment. How can the amount of money in money market accounts... -
May 31, 2024The Bloomberg natural language processing model analyzes Fed speeches and currently shows FOMC members moving toward a tightening bias. -
May 30, 2024Financial conditions are significantly easier than when the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022.
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May 29, 2024Strong earnings growth points to new CAPEX and more growth. -
May 17, 2024In Japan, the population is shrinking, and, as a result, the number of vacant homes is rising. -
May 16, 2024Household expectations to future home price appreciation are currently at the highest level since 2007.
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May 10, 2024The share of tech jobs in California has been declining and the share of tech jobs in Texas has been rising. -
May 8, 2024Market forecasts are almost always wrong about the future path of the Fed funds rate -
May 7, 2024Why is the economy still so strong? There are two reasons, lower interest-rate sensitivity and strong demand tailwinds. -
May 2, 2024Inflation, geopolitical risks and Chinese demand. -
May 1, 2024Public markets and public companies are only a small part of the economy. -
Apr 25, 2024The Marshall Plan was 5% of US GDP, and the US fiscal response to Covid was 20% of US GDP. -
Apr 23, 2024Equity analysts continue to increase their earnings expectations for the S&P 500, see chart below. There are simply no signs... -
Apr 22, 2024Inflation has to drop to almost nothing for the rest of the year. -
Apr 11, 2024The consensus has been lowering the likelihood of a US recession over the next 12 months, see chart below. -
Apr 9, 2024In 2023 it was all about the Magnificent Seven. Then it was the Fabulous Four. Now? -
Apr 3, 2024After the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, the labor market started softening, with households saying that it was... -
Mar 20, 2024The Fed’s inflation target is 2%, and the bottom line of the inflation discussion is that inflation has stopped falling. -
Mar 15, 2024With no signs of a recession, commercial real estate prices are starting to recover, see chart below. This is helpful.
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Mar 13, 2024By this measure... -
Mar 12, 2024Household expectations to future home price appreciation are currently at the highest level since 2007.
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Mar 8, 2024Normally, the business cycles in the US and Europe are highly correlated. -
Mar 4, 2024The market came into 2023 expecting a recession. The market went into 2024 expecting six Fed cuts. But the economy isn't cooperating. -
Feb 27, 2024The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than the top 10 companies were during the dot com era.
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Feb 23, 2024US households are less and less mobile, and after the Fed started raising rates, the self-reported probability of moving residence... -
Feb 14, 2024Earnings expectations have diverged for the S&P 7 and the S&P 493. -
Jan 26, 2024The main argument for the Fed cutting rates in March is that the Fed’s workhorse model says that because of... -
Jan 12, 2024There is an ongoing debate about how core PCE inflation could come down from 5.5% to 3.2% without a slowdown...
