Uncertainty or Bad Policies?

By Joseph Calhoun

Jim Tankersley has an article at Wonkblog declaring the Era of Uncertainty Over and wonders if that means we are about to get an economic boom:

Optimism is again swirling that the economy is finally, finally, finally set to break out of its recovery doldrums and into a year - next year, but still! - of strongish growth. You'd be forgiven for not buying it yet. We've heard this fast-growth-is-right-around-the-corner song before, and there's a decent case that it won't end any differently this time around.


But you should know that something is different this year, and, depending on your economic philosophy, it could be a pretty big something. You can call it "certainty," or you can call it "confidence."


Either way, it's surging.

Tankersley sneers at conservatives who have cited uncertainty as a factor inhibiting economic growth and even drags out Paul Krguman's confidence fairy:

Conservative lawmakers and economists have contended, almost since the official end of the recession in mid-2009, that policy uncertainty was holding back growth. Mitt Romney, House Speaker John Boehner, a host of economists - they all promised that if Washington lifted the cloud of uncertainty hanging over American businesses, those businesses would grow confident in the future and invest and hire in droves.


This is the belief that liberal economist Paul Krugman derisively dubbed "the confidence fairy."

Well, I'm not a Republican and probably not a conservative in the sense Tankersley means but I don't know of anyone has cited mere uncertainty as the major factor holding back the economy. Yes, uncertainty is part of the problem but relieving it by cementing in place lousy economic policies isn't going to lead to a boom. We've had lousy economic policy for over a decade, a period encompassing a Republican President, a Democratic President, Republican congresses and Democratic ones. And through all of that we've had a Federal Reserve with nothing but credit creation in its bag of tricks and a Treasury howling incessantly for a weaker dollar. Lousy economic policy is about the only thing bipartisan about Washington, D.C. 

Tankersley apparently doesn't believe that the confidence fairy is due for arrival either:

Now that so many of the confidence metrics are pointing up, we should find out whether those predictions are correct or whether the economy will remain bogged down by spending cuts and tax increases, the hallmarks of a fiscal policy that Krugman and other Keynesian economists have insisted were the problem all along.

I don't know of anyone of any political stripe that wanted that policy mix. Democrats preferred tax and spending increases. Republicans preferred tax and spending cuts. Both sides wanted some kind of Keynesian stimulus with Democrats preferring increased government spending and Republicans preferring tax cuts. We got neither. Both sides claimed to want deficit reduction but neither appears serious about it. So what we got was tax hikes for Democrats and some minor spending restraint for Republicans. It did reduce the uncertainty but it isn't a mix that will lead to a boom. If the economy doesn't  perk up I'm sure Tankersley, Krugman and other Democrats will blame it on the Republicans but the truth is that both parties are at fault.

Joseph Calhoun is CEO of Alhambra Investment Partners in Miami, Florida. He can be reached at jyc3@alhambrapartners.com

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