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MarketWatch First Take
March 15, 2011, 9:44 a.m. EDT
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Apollo: Wall Street, do we have a problem?
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) "” It rarely pays to sell into a panic.
That's worth keeping in mind today as panic grips global stock markets.
Perhaps the closest recent domestic analogy to what Japan is going through right now is the 9-11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Just as is the case with the Japanese stock market, Wall Street plunged on the day it eventually reopened following those attacks.
But the market quickly recovered.
Consider an investor who was unlucky enough to have invested in the stock market at the close on Sept. 10, 2001, the day before the attacks. Believe it or not, within just two months that investor would have been in the black.
Making this result even more striking: It came within the context of the 2000-2002 bear market and the associated bursting of the Internet bubble.
Even industries that were otherwise decimated by the 9-11 attacks, such as airlines, recovered smartly. Six months after the attacks, for example, the NYSE ARCA Airline Index /quotes/comstock/10t!xal.x (XAL 43.37, -0.17, -0.39%) was just 2.3% below where it close on Sept. 10, 2001, the day before those attacks"”despite the decision of numerous travelers to never fly again.
You might object that it's dangerous to draw investment conclusions from this one turn of events.
But the market's behavior after 9-11 was right in line with historical precedent. Consider a study conducted by Ned Davis Research, the quantitative research firm. It identified what it considered to be the 28 worst political or economic crises over the six decades prior to the 9-11 attacks"”beginning with the Fall of France in 1940 and Pearl Harbor in 1941.
In 19 of these 28 cases, according to the firm, the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (DJIA 11,851, -141.57, -1.18%) was higher six months after the crisis began. The average six-month DJIA gain following all 28 crises was 2.3%.
"”Mark Hulbert
How good is your memory? The people behind Apollo Global Management hope it doesn't stretch back more than three years tops.
12:17 p.m. Today12:17 p.m. March 15, 2011
"Fed steady on rates, bond-buy plan and says underlying inflation 18subdued 19 http://on.mktw.net/grm7Il" 1:16 p.m. EDT, March 15, 2011 from MarketWatch
"Online sales help drive Williams-Sonoma's profit. $WSM http://stk.ly/eJcuLG" 12:52 p.m. EDT, March 15, 2011 from MarketWatch
"Major League Soccer Kicks Off New Season #MLS http://bit.ly/i2mzL4" 12:28 p.m. EDT, March 15, 2011 from MarketWatch
"Selling into a panic. Market typically recovers quickly from big drops http://bit.ly/eJfQ1G" 11:53 a.m. EDT, March 15, 2011 from MarketWatch
"#Poll: In light of Japan's crisis, what's the future for #nuclear energy? http://poll.fm/2t802" 11:18 a.m. EDT, March 15, 2011 from MarketWatch
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