Fundamentals Don't Explain Gold Drop

Mark Hulbert MarketWatch March 16, 2011

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Mark Hulbert

March 16, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT

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By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) "” Sell first, ask questions later.

That appears to be what gold traders did earlier this week, when their actions caused bullion to suffer a huge decline "” falling more than $30 alone on Tuesday.

/quotes/comstock/21e!f:gc\j11 GCJ11 1,400, +6.90, +0.50%

Consider whether or not there are good fundamental reasons for gold to have fallen so much.

The default explanation, of course, is that bullion's decline somehow traces back to the Japanese earthquake and the ensuing crisis.

But I'm not so sure why.

Consider what is perhaps the most-invoked rationale for investing in gold: It's ability to hedge against worsening inflation. Isn't that rationale even more compelling now than it was before the Japanese earthquake hit last week?

For example, the crisis undoubtedly will lead the Japanese government into spending a lot more money in coming years than previously planned "” both in rebuilding the earthquake-ravaged regions, as well as in maintaining the value of the yen in foreign-exchange markets.

In addition, most analysts now seem to agree, the Japanese crisis makes it all but certain that the Federal Reserve in the U.S. will inaugurate yet another round of quantitative easing "” QE3 "” following the termination of QE2 this coming June 30.

Other things being equal, this should lead to more inflation, not less.

Another oft-cited rationale for investing in gold: It's a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. But aren't the horrors we're witnessing in Japan a textbook illustration of just that kind of uncertainty?

Indeed, Reuters has reported, premiums for gold bars in Tokyo jumped earlier this week to $1 per ounce, up from zero last week and a discount in the weeks prior to that. That is just what we would expect, given the desire to hedge against uncertainty "” and suggests that it's not reduced Japanese demand that is the culprit in gold's recent plunge.

Drops as big as gold's in recent days, especially when unaccompanied by any obvious fundamental reason, often occur when bullish sentiment rises to excessive levels. And, sure enough, bullishness among gold timers rose earlier this month to its highest level in two years. ( Read my March 4 column.)

Unfortunately for gold, bullish sentiment has pulled back only slightly from those overheated levels. This suggests to contrarians that more downside action may be needed to wring enthusiasm out of the gold traders.

Only then can we expect gold to begin responding more straightforwardly to the fundamentals.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

Add Comment › · Recommend (1) · Post: Alert Email Print More Mark Hulbert March 15, 2011 Fear grows "” a contrarian good sign March 11, 2011 March Madness and your portfolio March 9, 2011 How bull market stacks up against history March 8, 2011 Deflation worries receding fast March 4, 2011 Sentiment increasingly a short-term tool Explore related topics Japan Gold - 100 Oz (Comex) Comments Screener About Mark Hulbert

Mark Hulbert is editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, which since 1980 has been tracking the performance of hundreds of investment advisors. The HFD became a service of MarketWatch in April 2002. In addition to being a Senior Columnist for MarketWatch, Hulbert writes a monthly column for Barron's.com and a column on investment strategies for the Journal of the American Association of Individual Investors. A frequent guest on television and radio shows, you may have seen Hulbert on CNBC, Wall Street Week, or ABC's World News This Morning. Most recently, Dow Jones and MarketWatch launched a new weekly newsletter based on Hulbert's research, entitled Hulbert on Markets: What's Working Now.

First Take Fed says, let them eat iPads

The central bank is still looking past food and energy price inflation, writes Steve Goldstein.

2:43 p.m. March 15, 2011

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Consider whether or not there are good fundamental reasons for gold to have fallen so much.

The default explanation, of course, is that bullion's decline somehow traces back to the Japanese earthquake and the ensuing crisis.

But I'm not so sure why.

Other things being equal, this should lead to more inflation, not less.

Only then can we expect gold to begin responding more straightforwardly to the fundamentals.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

The central bank is still looking past food and energy price inflation, writes Steve Goldstein.

2:43 p.m. March 15, 2011

"Mark Hulbert: Gold's strange response to Japan http://on.mktw.net/hoBRwg" 11:07 p.m. EDT, March 15, 2011 from MktwHulbert

"Mark Hulbert: Fear grows "” a contrarian good sign http://on.mktw.net/hr9tVL" 2:02 a.m. EDT, March 15, 2011 from MktwHulbert

"Mark Hulbert: March Madness and your portfolio http://on.mktw.net/iksFk9" 12:23 a.m. EST, March 11, 2011 from MktwHulbert

"Mark Hulbert: How bull market stacks up against history http://on.mktw.net/gwR81j" 12:45 a.m. EST, March 9, 2011 from MktwHulbert

"Mark Hulbert: Deflation worries receding fast http://on.mktw.net/e9aq6Z" 12:02 a.m. EST, March 8, 2011 from MktwHulbert

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Fundamentals Don't Explain Gold Drop

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