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June 10, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) "” The stock market in late May fell below its 50-day moving average, and it would take only a couple more big down days to send the market below its 200-day moving average.
Should you care?
/quotes/zigman/627449/delayed DJIA 12,124.36, +75.42, +0.63%
The answer, as is often the case, is not as straightforward as we might otherwise like. Market timing systems based on the 200-day moving average, even though they have impressive long-term performance, have become markedly less successful in recent decades.
Consider what I found upon backtesting the 200-day moving average as a market timing indicator back to the late 1800s, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449/delayed DJIA +0.63% was created. Specifically, I constructed a portfolio that was fully invested in the Dow whenever it was above its 200-day moving average, and otherwise was on the sidelines earning nothing.
The long-term results were quite impressive. Compared to a 5.1% annualized return for buying and holding, the 200-day moving average portfolio earned a 6.8% annualized return. Better yet, this outperformance was produced while simultaneously reducing risk by a big amount.
Unfortunately, this moving-average system has been a disappointment over the last two decades. From the beginning of 1990 through the end of this past May, for example, this hypothetical moving-average portfolio made 4.2% annualized, compared to 7.2% annualized for buying and holding. The money-market interest that the moving-average portfolio would have earned while out of the market would not have made up this difference.
Even on a risk-adjusted basis over the last two decades, the 200-day-moving average has lagged a simple buy-and-hold approach.
Blake LeBaron, a finance professor at Brandeis University who has extensively analyzed various technical analysis strategies including moving averages, says that there is the distinct possibility that something has permanently changed in the financial markets that largely eliminated the moving average's potential as a market timing indicator.
What might that something be? Prof. LeBaron speculates that one culprit might be the 200-day moving average's increasing popularity. As more and more investors begin to follow a system, of course, its potential to beat the market begins to evaporate.
In any case, Prof. LeBaron noted, moving-average systems stopped being profitable in the foreign-exchange markets at about the same time they lost their effectiveness in timing the U.S. equity market. This increases the likelihood that whatever caused the moving average to become less profitable in the stock market was more than just a fluke.
The bottom line? Unless you have good reason to believe that the last two decades were a mere exception and not the new rule, you may want to think twice before buying or selling stocks based on whether the market is above or below its 200-day moving average.
/quotes/zigman/627449/delayed Add DJIA to portfolio DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,124.36 +75.42 +0.63% Volume: 149.70M June 9, 2011 4:30p var embeddedchart70394702Chart = new EmbeddedChart('#embeddedchart70394702', NormalChartStyleNoDecimals, 240, 80, '1dy', '5mi', null, null, null, 'US:DJIA'); jQuery.data($('#embeddedchart70394702').get(0), 'embeddedchart', embeddedchart70394702Chart); //$(document).ready(function() { var storywidth = $('#mainstory').width(); var maxwidth = storywidth; $('#maincontent pre').each(function (index, value) { var thiswidth = $(value).width(); if (thiswidth > maxwidth) maxwidth = thiswidth; }); var offset = maxwidth - storywidth; if (offset > 0) { var margin = 13; var blanketwidth = $('#blanket').width(); var contentwidth = $('#maincontent').width(); $('#blanket').width(blanketwidth + offset + margin); $('#maincontent').width(contentwidth + offset + margin); $('#mainstory').width(storywidth + offset + margin); } //});Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
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"Mark Hulbert: Don't sell a dull market short http://on.mktw.net/ltkbFc" 11:32 p.m. EDT, June 7, 2011 from MktwHulbert
"Mark Hulbert: Gold traders strangely subdued http://on.mktw.net/m7nniF" 11:37 p.m. EDT, June 6, 2011 from MktwHulbert
"Mark Hulbert: Dissecting the stock market's P/E http://on.mktw.net/iQdy9v" 11:42 p.m. EDT, June 2, 2011 from MktwHulbert
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About Mark HulbertMark Hulbert is editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, which since 1980 has been tracking the performance of hundreds of investment advisors. The HFD became a service of MarketWatch in April 2002. In addition to being a Senior Columnist for MarketWatch, Hulbert writes a monthly column for Barron's.com and a column on investment strategies for the Journal of the American Association of Individual Investors. A frequent guest on television and radio shows, you may have seen Hulbert on CNBC, Wall Street Week, or ABC's World News This Morning. Most recently, Dow Jones and MarketWatch launched a new weekly newsletter based on Hulbert's research, entitled Hulbert on Markets: What's Working Now.
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PETER BRIMELOW Market-timer, or racket? Sick of slumping stocks? One top-performing investment newsletter is always fully invested, and it makes market timing all the more alluring. 150711 1240156800000 1271692800000The answer, as is often the case, is not as straightforward as we might otherwise like. Market timing systems based on the 200-day moving average, even though they have impressive long-term performance, have become markedly less successful in recent decades.
Consider what I found upon backtesting the 200-day moving average as a market timing indicator back to the late 1800s, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449/delayed DJIA +0.63% was created. Specifically, I constructed a portfolio that was fully invested in the Dow whenever it was above its 200-day moving average, and otherwise was on the sidelines earning nothing.
The long-term results were quite impressive. Compared to a 5.1% annualized return for buying and holding, the 200-day moving average portfolio earned a 6.8% annualized return. Better yet, this outperformance was produced while simultaneously reducing risk by a big amount.
Unfortunately, this moving-average system has been a disappointment over the last two decades. From the beginning of 1990 through the end of this past May, for example, this hypothetical moving-average portfolio made 4.2% annualized, compared to 7.2% annualized for buying and holding. The money-market interest that the moving-average portfolio would have earned while out of the market would not have made up this difference.
Even on a risk-adjusted basis over the last two decades, the 200-day-moving average has lagged a simple buy-and-hold approach.
Blake LeBaron, a finance professor at Brandeis University who has extensively analyzed various technical analysis strategies including moving averages, says that there is the distinct possibility that something has permanently changed in the financial markets that largely eliminated the moving average's potential as a market timing indicator.
What might that something be? Prof. LeBaron speculates that one culprit might be the 200-day moving average's increasing popularity. As more and more investors begin to follow a system, of course, its potential to beat the market begins to evaporate.
In any case, Prof. LeBaron noted, moving-average systems stopped being profitable in the foreign-exchange markets at about the same time they lost their effectiveness in timing the U.S. equity market. This increases the likelihood that whatever caused the moving average to become less profitable in the stock market was more than just a fluke.
The bottom line? Unless you have good reason to believe that the last two decades were a mere exception and not the new rule, you may want to think twice before buying or selling stocks based on whether the market is above or below its 200-day moving average.
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
"Mark Hulbert: Making the trend your friend http://on.mktw.net/kf6bYe" 11:39 p.m. EDT, June 9, 2011 from MktwHulbert
"Mark Hulbert: Don't sell a dull market short http://on.mktw.net/ltkbFc" 11:32 p.m. EDT, June 7, 2011 from MktwHulbert
"Mark Hulbert: Gold traders strangely subdued http://on.mktw.net/m7nniF" 11:37 p.m. EDT, June 6, 2011 from MktwHulbert
"Mark Hulbert: Dissecting the stock market's P/E http://on.mktw.net/iQdy9v" 11:42 p.m. EDT, June 2, 2011 from MktwHulbert
"Mark Hulbert: Think twice before jumping into tech http://on.mktw.net/kJ6YpB" 11:59 p.m. EDT, May 31, 2011 from MktwHulbert
Mark Hulbert is editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, which since 1980 has been tracking the performance of hundreds of investment advisors. The HFD became a service of MarketWatch in April 2002. In addition to being a Senior Columnist for MarketWatch, Hulbert writes a monthly column for Barron's.com and a column on investment strategies for the Journal of the American Association of Individual Investors. A frequent guest on television and radio shows, you may have seen Hulbert on CNBC, Wall Street Week, or ABC's World News This Morning. Most recently, Dow Jones and MarketWatch launched a new weekly newsletter based on Hulbert's research, entitled Hulbert on Markets: What's Working Now.
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MBAs want to make an impact
Vital Signs
E coli. outbreak typifies food threat
Media Web
Sarah Palin knows how stupid we are
What Wall Street Won't Tell You
Can you escape plunging bond yields?
On the Markets
Making the trend your friend
No-Nonsense Investing
Things could get ugly as debt cloud grows
Strength in Numbers
Obama's top 4 tips to win financial security
Tech Tales
Apple's spaceship will become icon of Valley
Speculations
Ben Bernanke, meet Charlie Brown
Read Full Article »