Initial jobless claims are moving higher again. It’s not terribly surprising after another summer of economic discontent. In recent weeks there was some hope that new filings for unemployment benefits (a key leading indicator) was stuck in neutral, albeit at elevated levels. Now even that thin reed seems to be giving way as the numbers edge higher. Maybe it's noise; maybe we're in another one of those extended head fakes that have plagued these numbers several times in the recent past. Maybe, maybe, maybe.
What we do know is that new claims rose 11,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 428,000, the Labor Department reports--the highest since late-June. It takes an enormous amount of confidence to dismiss this increase once you also consider that the four-week moving average for this series has been rising steadily for the past month. The implication: This is not a drill.
